J.P. Morgan's $2.3 Billion Loss as a Red Herring

May 14, 2012


J.P. Morgan's Loss as a Red Herring
By R Tamara de Silva
May 14, 2012

Much ado is being made about J. P. Morgan's disclosure of over $2 billion in trading losses and one hopes the media and regulators do not use this as yet another opportunity to completely miss the point. Wall street must not rely exclusively on its present risk models that are based exclusively on VaR and variations of VaR-it must learn to think outside its own box and anticipate worse case scenarios. We cannot afford to have many more systemic crises that threaten to bring down the financial system simply because yet again, the unexpected and un-modeled occurs.

Chief Executive Jamie Dimon's public self-flagellation aside, this loss compromises merely 20% percent of J. P. Morgan's pretax profit for the first quarter of this year. Put another way, J. P. Morgan has a market capitalization of $137.4 billion of which $2 billion comprises a bit more than 1 percent--hardly fodder for anyone's angst against quasi-public Wall Street juggernauts that seem to privatize profit and publicize loss being 'too big to fail." Mr. Dimon is wrong to assert that the trading losses were the result of hedges. It would be more wrong for lawmakers on either side of the aisle to call for hasty regulations on an industry they have never really understood and from whose pockets they are lobbied and receive the heftiest campaign contributions. A cursory look at what has happened to the Volcker Rule illustrates this point. The real lesson of J. P. Morgan's $2.3 billion loss is that Wall Street must once and for all adjust the way it manages and understands risk.

Risk management is the difference between success and ruin in the financial markets and its failure is felt around the world by even those hapless individuals who have never sold a credit derivative. No where is the importance of risk management better illustrated than to recount our most recent crises, which according to Wall Street's most prevalent measurement of risk, Value at Risk (VaR), were never supposed to happen: The market crashes of 1987 and 2000, Long-Term Capital Management, the collapse of Bear Stearns, the Savings and Loan Crisis, the crash of 1929, the collapse of Northern Rock, the Russian Debt crisis. Understanding risk is the single most important consideration for any participant, from the independent trader to the juggernaut of a Goldman Sachs.

But what does Wall Street understand by the term risk? There are many discussions of what constitutes "risk" in the financial markets but not surprisingly, there is no one definition. Typically, discussions of risk revolve around the concepts of Value at Risk (VAR), beta, delta, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Black-Scholes options pricing model (BSM). All these ways of quantifying risk are based on inarguably faulty assumptions.

This is where a refresher on the Gaussian Bell Curve enters any discussion on Wall Street's risk models. There are really only two things worth knowing about a Gaussian Bell Curve this is also taught to the legions of business school graduates who go on to write risk models as analysts and traders on Wall Street. The first is that a Gaussian Bell Curve assumes events occur in a normal distribution. What this means is that in a Gaussian Bell Curve, if events or occurrences were plotted, they would occur in the largest numbers at or towards the very center of the bell curve. All these events, plotted on a chart would take the shape of a bell curve, hence the name. Events which occur less frequently would occur towards the edges of the curve. The further the event was from the center of the bell curve, the more improbable it is to occur. This is called a normal distribution. The second thing one should know about the Gaussian Bell Curve, perhaps less well taught is that it does not predict market events very well at all.

Analysts at investment banks make models of reality with predictive capability-it is called modeling. J. P. Morgan invented Risk Metrics in 1994 as a set of financial models that were to be used by investors to measure portfolio risk. Risk Metrics like financial modeling in general, attempts to take a certain set of variables or causes and isolate them as being the very variables that account for change in financial markets. This is a bit simplistic but works reasonably well when reality happens within the fat center of a bell curve. Financial models seek to replicate financial reality much like economic models and models of human behavior that have become extremely popular in the social sciences writ large. Financial risk models like social science models suffer from all the weakness and frailty of over-simplifying reality and selectively isolating causal variables. In sum, financial risk models fail catastrophically when worse-case scenarios or even the genuinely unexpected occurs.

This does not mean we have a reasonable alternative to risk models as we humans do not like indeterminacy. We do not like to make decisions or look back in hindsight and think we made decisions by tossing a coin. On the contrary, we like to find reasons for why we made decisions and why events occurred. We tend to think we can. We have at times an irrational belief in the rational. But as Pascal once stated, nothing is more rational than the abdication of reason itself. The ability of social scientists or investment bankers to explain events through the actions of rational human actors appeals to our psyche. It is appealing simply to think we can.

Models of the financial markets like models of the human behavior in the social sciences have serious limitations. To start, they have to simplify reality. One of the ways that modeling simplifies and in a sense, falsifies reality is by making assumptions about human beings, which are not true. For example, modeling tends to assume that humans, whether in a marketplace or in a poker game are rational and that they act at all times in accordance with their best interests. This is not borne out by reality. Any cursory historical account of human behavior belies that humans act rationally. Human beings are emotional actors as much as they are rational actors.

The supremacy of emotions to the human story is only matched by our social scientists willful neglect of them. However, given a choice, time and again, we often act on our emotions and against our rational interests. Our strongest emotions keep us awake at night, they cause us physical pain, they have helped our race to achieve beyond all expectation when at other times they have left us paralyzed. We think wishfully when we rationally should not. The markets are replete with examples of irrational exuberance, traders who act out of hope, fear and greed as much as they act out of a consistent rational interest in maximizing their profits. Markets historically at tops and bottoms have betrayed the irrational mob mentally of the masses of its participants.

If humans were truly rational, we simply would not have addictive behaviors like gambling, drug addiction, drinking or any self-destructive behavior. We may not even have much ill-health, skin cancer, road-rage, or obesity because knowing we should take care of ourselves, we would-this is rational. We may never purchase luxury items or clothes. We may not care so much about how our neighbors live because we would not feel envy, jealousy, sympathy or pity. The pursuit of leisure and charitable activities may well be quite different. So many of Tocqueville's observations about American life would not hold water.

But in reality, half of our brains are devoted to pure emotion. And this half has expressed itself as the stuff of life. We cannot seem to choose our emotions one at a time either. If we were, we would want to be able to love without being vulnerable to grief, to experience the wings of hope without putting ourselves in danger of experiencing disappointment or the failure of our hoped-for event. As a race, we have spent most of our time acting on our emotions and being in their grip as is borne out in our history, our mythologies, culture, our wars and literature. It is in every sense human to be irrational or at least to experience emotion. To argue that humans are rational actors is at a minimum to simplify things, but really it is not a valid assumption.

Modeling also suffers from faulty assumptions about the ability of human participants to gather, assimilate and react to information. Most models are sensitive to information. Information causes the rational actor in a model to act a certain way, presumably in a way that will maximize that actor's interests. In the real world, information is not perfect. There is misinformation. Rumors, false tips, erroneous analyst reports are example of misinformation. Some information that is available to a rational actor is false information. Even if we assumed that all the information available to market participants was correct and no false or misinformation was available, market participants would process and assimilate the information differently and at different rates. One example of misinformation and information assimilated at different times is the discovery of a report in 2008 on the internet that United Airlines was facing bankruptcy. This report was over a year old but it caused the price of the stock to drop by over 40% in a single day, before it was discovered that the report was old. In the real world, individually and collectively, we have different intellectual and ideological frameworks, we also have different levels of intelligence, among other factors that allow us to reach very different conclusions when faced with the same information. My neighbor may react to rising gasoline prices years faster than I would by immediately cutting down on his driving or purchasing a hybrid vehicle. Market participants react to identical information at various rates. One person may react quickly to too little information and another may wait much longer accumulating much more information. Sometimes waiting to act while accumulating and digesting information is not a good thing like waiting to liquidate a losing position before your losses wipe you out when acting sooner would have allowed you to cut your loss without going broke.

Another problem with financial models is that they do not account for insider information or conflicts of interest. A good idea for anyone with a year to spare would be to write a volume chronicling conflict of interest in the financial world. One of the inherent conflicts in investment banks has been the Chinese wall that is supposed to separate the investment banking and sales functions of the investment house from the research and analysis side. Some have argued that this Chinese wall did not always exist. There is an inherent conflict between the need to sell the investment banking services of a bank to the same customer who is being covered by the bank's analysts. There is an enormous and still unresolved conflict of interest in the functions of credit ratings agencies. The credit ratings agencies are paid by the issuers (their clients) of the securities they were supposed to evaluate, creating an inherent conflict of interest. If the analysts or agencies are too harsh in their coverage, then the ability of the bank to sell its investment banking services may suffer or the agencies will lose their clients.

What about the potentially insider information that the analysts obtained in covering a company and the danger that this information would travel across the room to the trading floor of the investment bank? Another conflict of interest certainly, but it is also an example of a market participant having insider information or simply information that other market participants do not have, before they have it.

Another fallacy with financial modeling is that models are required to isolate a fixed amount of causal variables. In other words, a financial model that was designed to predict the risk of an investment portfolio would be comprised of say twenty factors or variables, each of which or a certain number of which would affect a change in measure of risk to the investment portfolio. What if in reality, it was one hundred or ten thousand different variables or things that would change the riskiness of the portfolio?

The financial models of investment bank analysts and traders assign likelihood to the possibility of certain events occurring. Financial models assume a normal distribution (a bell curve) of asset returns or risk. Using a normal distribution, events that diverge from the mean or center of the bell curve, by five or more standard deviations, known as a five-sigma event, are very rare and ten-sigma events are nearly impossible. However, the 1987 market crash represents a change of 22 standard deviations. The odds of such a 22 standard deviation event occurring are so low as to deemed impossible.

In the real financial markets, events considered nearly impossible by financial models assuming normal distributions of events, not only are possible, they are occurring frequently. There have been multiple fluctuations greater than five standard deviations in our most recent past. Events that according to a Gaussian Bell Curve are supposed to occur only once every one hundred thousand years, if at all, are occurring in certain cases, several times in a decade. Dramatic market events or fat tails do occur in a greater frequency than is possible assuming normal distributions suggesting distributions are not normal. Since the 1998 Russian debt crisis, the global financial markets have experienced at least 10 events, none of which were supposed to occur more than once every few billion years.

The financial services industry is full of at least two generations of analysts, investment bankers, statisticians and of course economists, who have been indoctrinated through college, their masters and MBA programs to believe in the bell curve and normal distributions-it is beyond time that they learned to think outside the box. Alternatively, to the extent that any regulations are enacted, they should seek to once more separate investment banking from commercial banking so that as long as Wall Street relies on one VaR number, they are allowed to fail and their losses are never again shared by the public. @
R. Tamara de Silva

May 14, 2012
Chicago, Illinois

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and lawyer

Federal Judge in Health Care Case Orders Executive Branch to Explain Speech

April 4, 2012

Federal Judge in Health Care Case Orders Executive Branch to Explain Speech

By R Tamara de Silva
April 4, 2012


It not typical in the course of oral arguments for a Federal Judge to assign the Department of Justice and the Attorney General a homework assignment. Yesterday, the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit heard oral arguments involving the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("ACA" or "Obamacare") when something extraordinary happened. The Court was hearing oral arguments on an appeal by the Physicians Hospitals of America and Texas Spine & Joint Hospital, Lts, for the dismissal of an action they had filed for declaratory and injunctive relief against Kathleen Sebelius, as Secretary of the United States Department of Health and Human Services to prevent enforcement of Section 6001 of the ACA. During the Appellee's arguments, Judge Jerry Smith, interrupted the Department of Justice's lawyer, Dana Lydia Kaersvang to ask her whether the Department of Justice, an arm of the Executive Branch, agreed with statements made by President Obama that seemed to indicate that the Executive Branch did not believe the Judicial Branch had the power to overturn laws it found violated the Constitution.

"Judge Smith: Does the Department of Justice recognize that federal courts have the authority in appropriate circumstances to strike federal statutes because of one or more constitutional infirmities?
Ms. Kaersvang: Yes, your honor. Of course, there would need to be a severability analysis, but yes.
Judge Smith: I'm referring to statements by the president in the past few days to the effect...that it is somehow inappropriate for what he termed "unelected" judges to strike acts of Congress that have enjoyed -- he was referring, of course, to Obamacare -- what he termed broad consensus in majorities in both houses of Congress.
That has troubled a number of people who have read it as somehow a challenge to the federal courts or to their authority or to the appropriateness of the concept of judicial review. And that's not a small matter. So I want to be sure that you're telling us that the attorney general and the Department of Justice do recognize the authority of the federal courts through unelected judges to strike acts of Congress or portions thereof in appropriate cases.
Ms. Kaersvang: Marbury v. Madison is the law, your honor, but it would not make sense in this circumstance to strike down this statute, because there's no...
Judge Smith: I would like to have from you by noon on Thursday...a letter stating what is the position of the attorney general and the Department of Justice, in regard to the recent statements by the president, stating specifically and in detail in reference to those statements what the authority is of the federal courts in this regard in terms of judicial review. That letter needs to be at least three pages single spaced, no less, and it needs to be specific. It needs to make specific reference to the president's statements and again to the position of the attorney general and the Department of Justice." [1]

On Monday President Obama stated that, "I am confident the Supreme Court will not take what would be an unprecedented, extraordinary step of overturning a law that was passed by a strong majority of a democratically elected Congress." The President's statement is false in that he discounts over two hundred years of the Federal Court exercising its power of judicial review to do just that.

The Judicial Branch's power of judicial review arises out of Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137 (1803), wherein Chief Justice John Marshall established the United States Supreme Court's power of judicial review. In this case, Justice Marshall pointed out that the Constitution is "the fundamental and paramount law of the nation" and that "an act of the legislature repugnant to the constitution is void."[2] The Constitution is the nation's highest law and when an act of Congress conflicts with it, that act is to be held invalid.

To be fair, the words of the President, keeping in mind he is the head of the Executive Branch, attacking the power of a co-equal branch of government, in this instance the Judicial Branch, are not unprecedented nor constrained to one political party. President George W. Bush criticized "unelected judges" and their power to go against the will of the people. Both conservatives and liberals reliably point to the hand of judicial activism when things do not go their way. Some so-called Supreme Court experts go so far as to assert that a Supreme Court justice will ever only view any given issue of law through either a Democratic or Republican prism-ruling out any allegiance or oath to the Constitution or the complexity of Constitutional law-of course to many of these experts, there is no complexity to the law or other matters, other than what falls between bold ideological demarcations.

Perhaps the most famous Supreme Court skeptic was President Franklin D. Roosevelt. President Roosevelt displayed a contempt for the Supreme Court calling it the Court of "Nine Old Men" because in 1937, six of the justices were age 70 or more and the youngest one a mere 61. When the Supreme Court held the Railroad Retirement Act of 1934, and the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 un-Constitutional, President Roosevelt famously complained that the plainly archaic court had applied "the horse-and-buggy definition of interstate commerce." In order to remedy their apparent senility or his belief that they would only continue to strike down several parts of the New Deal, he came up with a plan in the form of a bill that would require all Supreme Court Justices to retire at 70 or have the President appoint a younger justice to serve alongside them.

Since Roosevelt, Presidential candidates from George Wallace to Newt Gingrich have run on platforms promising to rein in the Judiciary in the way they think appropriate.

Somehow, the Founding Fathers managed a design that would anticipate even the hyper-politicization of the present day. A powerful reason for the Constitution's establishment of three equal and separate branches of government was to ensure that each branch would serve as a check and balance on the others-in theory not permitting one to become too powerful. Unelected judges were intended to be removed from shifting political tides and ensure that political mobs and their demagogues would not overrun the basic protections of freedom guaranteed by the United States Constitution. The law of the land would not be held hostage to it's the shifting agendas of political parties or vain ideology. To anyone but an ideologue, the unelected nature of Supreme Court judges and the lifetime tenure of Federal Court judges are not bad things.

Judge Smith's asking the Department of Justice to clarify whether the words of its boss were those of the Attorney General and the posture of the Department of Justice is extraordinary. Many would argue that Congress, politicians of every stripe and Presidents violate a respect and regard for the other branch of the government by routinely criticizing the Judiciary and politicizing everything. All pretense of a kinder gentler discourse on matters of public policy may have gone the way of the Dodo to be replaced by discourse at the lowest common denominator. So perhaps Federal judges should be above the fray and not get sullied by stepping into political brawls. A counter-argument might be that if I make one legal argument to the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals during oral arguments and the moment I walk outside the building contradict what I have just said by making another legal argument, the Court of Appeals would have a right to inquire what my position really is. Perhaps because President Obama is essentially a litigant in the appeal and his suggestion of judicial review being unprecedented, radical enough a legal posture, Judge Smith's query of the Department of Justice is reasonable.@
R. Tamara de Silva

April 4, 2012
Chicago, Illinois

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and lawyer

Footnotes:
1. http://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/OralArgumentRecordings.aspx?prid=257465
2. 5 U.S. 137 (1803)

Update- Department of Justice Responds to the Court:
April 5, 2012: Attorney General Eric Holder responds to Judge Jerry Smith-the full text of his letter is here: AG letter to 5th Circuit .pdf
Mr. Holder states that his letter should not be taken as a supplemental brief and does not concern the arguments before the Court but points to the presumptive Constitutionality of Federal statutes and quotes two Federal judges who did not find Obamacare to be violative of the Constitution.

Difficult Legal Issues in the Healthcare Case Before the Supreme Court

March 27, 2012
Difficult Legal Issues in the Healthcare Case Before the Supreme Court


By R Tamara de Silva
March 27, 2012

Arguments began yesterday before the United States Supreme Court on the future of President Obama's healthcare bill, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act ("ACA" or "Obamacare"). The question of whether President Obama's national health care plan would withstand the Constitutional challenges brought by the Attorneys General in twenty-six states was destined to be determined by the Supreme Court when after August 2011, the Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit issued a 304 page opinion that the ACA would violate the powers of Congress under the Commerce Clause. After the Eleventh Circuit's ruling there were two conflicting Circuit Court opinions on the law because the Sixth Circuit had upheld the ACA as not violative of the Constitution in June of 2011. The Supreme Court will decide upon the Constitutionality of the ACA based upon three criteria, the Commerce Clause, the Taxing Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clauses within the United States Constitution. None of the arguments are quite as clear cut, however as many people believe.

The Supreme Court's ultimate decision is of monumental importance to either keeping the Government's powers under the Commerce Clause checked, or allowing them to be let upon this nation, unbounded, limitless and absolute. The future of this decision will affect nothing less than whether Congress is ever again, held back from regulating absolutely everything in America under its ability to regulate commerce or what are called its Commerce powers.

In Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137 (1803), Chief Justice John Marshall established the United States Supreme Court's power of judicial review. In this case, Justice Marshall pointed out words that are still forceful today- that the Constitution was "the fundamental and paramount law of the nation" and that "an act of the legislature repugnant to the constitution is void."[1] The Constitution is the nation's highest law and when an act of Congress conflicts with it, that act is to be held invalid. The Supreme Court examines President Obama's healthcare law under the authority of this old and venerable case.

Commerce Clause

Chief Justice John Marshall wrote almost two hundred years ago in Gibbons v. Ogden, 22 U.S. 1 (1824), that Congress' power under the Commerce Clause is the power, "to prescribe the rule by which commerce is to be governed. This power, like all others vested in Congress, is complete in itself, may be exercised to its utmost extent, and acknowledges no limitations, other than are prescribed in the Constitution."[2] Congress has long had the power to regulate insurance and as such, health insurance.[3]

Perhaps the most helpful discussion of the Commerce Clause arguments is within the Eleventh Circuit case. In that case, twenty-six states sued the Government for using the Commerce Clause to have Congress require by law that Americans must buy health insurance from "birth to death" from a private company or pay a penalty-in effect legislate that every American buy a product from a private vendor whether they want it or not.

The Government has argued that those who do not have health insurance and use the emergency room or public hospitals when sick (what are called "cost-shifters" in the court opinion) affect interstate commerce and fall within the ambit of the Commerce Clause because they shift an economic cost on those who have health insurance and the insurance industry as a whole.[4]

President Obama's defense before the Eleventh Circuit asserts that by merely breathing, individuals affect interstate commerce, "and therefore Congress may regulate them at every point of their life." This argument would seek to expand Congress' powers under the Commerce Clause beyond current law and give the Federal Government absolute unfettered power to regulate any activity that had but the most tenuous connection to interstate commerce.

There are two questions the Supreme Court must decide: 1) whether the decision not to purchase health insurance is an economic one; and 2) whether not purchasing health insurance is an activity or an inactivity. These questions are important in deciding whether the decision not to purchase health insurance is an economic decision. Some would consider that my decision not to buy health insurance is an act of economic inactivity-not an activity at all. The proponents of the ACA would differ and argue that the decision to not purchase health insurance is an economic decision to self-insure and discount the future risks of ill health. In other words, is an inactivity (not buying insurance) tantamount to an activity (buying health insurance) for purposes of the Commerce Clause? Are the two the same if when measured in the aggregate, they have a substantial enough impact on economic activity? The strongest defense of the ACA would be the argument that for the purposes of the Commerce Clause, there is no distinction between activity and inactivity. The decision not to buy health insurance (an inactivity) is arguably an economic decision for purposes of the Commerce Clause if when you take the aggregate of all people that make this economic decision, there is a substantial effect on inter-state commerce.

However, Eleventh Circuit Justices Joel Dubina and Frank Hull questioned whether the Commerce Clause subjects those outside of the stream of commerce to Congress' authority over commerce. People that do not buy health insurance are, "not making a voluntary decision to enter the stream of commerce, but this choice is being imposed on them by the Federal Government." [5]

The Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals points out the instances of when Congress has actually mandated personal action on United States citizens solely because they are American are relatively few: serving on juries, registering for the draft, filing tax returns and responding to the census. Before the ACA, Congress has not been able to compel Americans to engage in an activity, even one with substantial economic consequences-for example, no one is required by law to purchase flood insurance even if they live in a flood plain or for that matter stop building homes in flood plains. Congress has not yet required that people abandon New Orleans, nor hurricane prone areas or other geographic areas proven to attract recurring and costly natural disasters.

There is absolutely no precedent for Congress using the Commerce Clause to enforce a purely economic mandate. All previous government mandates of individual behavior that have an economic consequence primarily affect an American's responsibilities as a citizen with the United States. The government's mandate of a draft, filing a tax return and serving on a jury, all affect a citizen's interaction with the government itself and affect how government defends itself and operates. However, mandated health care would affect and mandate that every citizen interact with a private company-a requirement never before asked by the Government under the Commerce Clause.

President Obama's lawyers will make the argument in favor of mandating that an individual purchase a good or service just because the decision not to purchase a good or service, if taken in the aggregate of all person who similarly made this decision, have a substantial impact on interstate commerce. However, the Eleventh Circuit cited Lopez v. United States, which held that the a Congressional finding of the aggregate effect of economic activity was not sufficient to hold legislation a valid exercise of the Commerce Clause, "Simply because Congress may conclude that a particular activity substantially affects interstate commerce does not necessarily make it so."[6]

Proponents of the ACA would point to the very same the Lopez case which hold that Congress can regulate intrastate "economic activity" when that activity, "viewed in the aggregate, substantially affects" commerce between borders.[7]

Were the Supreme Court to find the Administration's arguments persuasive, their reasoning would mean that Congress might use the Commerce Clause to mandate every conceivable economic decision, even decision lacking what the courts have historically required, "a nexus" or connection or a regulated economic activity. Even areas that have historically been under the jurisdiction of the states such as marriage, divorce, child custody, choice of education and all have substantial economic effects in the aggregate and would theoretically be candidates for regulation under the Commerce Clause. Health care has historically been regulated by the states.

If the Government can mandate the purchase of private health insurance, it can mandate every other private purchase. The Eleventh Circuit's opinion points out the Constitutionally untenable nature of the defendants' position,

"In sum, the individual mandate is breathtaking in its expansive scope. It regulates those who have not entered the health care market at all. It regulates those who have entered the health care market, but have not entered the insurance market (and have no intention of doing so). It is overinclusive in when it regulates: it conflates those who presently consume health care with those who will not consume health care for many years into the future. The government's position amounts to an argument that the mere fact of an individual's existence substantially affects interstate commerce, and therefore Congress may regulate them at every point of their life. This theory affords no limiting principles in which to confine Congress's enumerated powers."
[8]


Consider the case of a famous Molotov cocktail in which it was held that Congress' power under the Commerce Clause did not extend to holding the arson of a private residence a Federal crime. In 1998, in Fort Wayne, Indiana, a certain Dewey Jones from Detroit decided the best way to dispose of a Molotov cocktail was to throw it into his cousin, James Walker, Jr's house. Predictably, Jones was convicted in U.S. District Court of violating 18 U.S.C. section 844(i), which holds that it is Federal crime to "maliciously damage or destroy, ...by means of fire or an explosive, any building... used in interstate or foreign commerce or in any activity affecting interstate or foreign commerce." Jones' lawyers unsuccessfully argued that section 844(i), when applied to the arson of a private residence, exceeds the authority vested in Congress under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution.

The Supreme Court in a unanimous opinion, delivered by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, agreed. The Court ruled that an owner-occupied private residence not used for any commercial purpose does not qualify as property "used in" commerce or commerce-affecting activity, such that arson of such a dwelling is not subject to federal prosecution under section 844(i). Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote for the Court that "[w]ere we to adopt the Government's expansive interpretation of section 844(i), hardly a building in the land would fall outside the federal statute's domain." [9]

What is most interesting about the Jones case is that in it the Supreme Court Justices asked the Government's lawyer what if anything he thought would not be included in the Government's suggested reading of the Commerce Clause--he could not seem to come up with limitation.

Taxing Clause

Proponents of the ACA will argue that the Congressional mandate of the ACA was a tax under the Taxing and Spending Clause. The Eleventh Circuit Court declined to see it thus pointing out how many times, Congress describes the mandate not as a tax but as a penalty and in its legislative history makes clear the ACA was intended as a penalty and not exclusively a revenue-raising mechanism. This is arguably the weakest defense of the ACA because only one court has even considered this a valid defense and bipartisan judges who have upheld the Constitutionality of the ACA have not found the Taxing Clause defense of the ACA persuasive.

Necessary and Proper Clause

Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution grants Congress the power, "to make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution" it's other Federal powers. This language is the basis of the Necessary and Proper Clause and in my opinion, perhaps what may constitute the strongest defense of the ACA. One of the reasons being is the Necessary and Proper Clause is simply not perfectly clear what powers are given to the Federal Government and not the states to effectuate Federal laws and the powers of the Legislative and Executive Branches. Also, it is the Commerce Clause that has been invoked far more than the Necessary and Proper Clause, giving all a clearer sense of the latter's meaning.

Looking at original intent for hints on its intended scope is not exactly helpful either as it was the subject of heated debate between Alexander Hamilton, who believed it to authorize many implied and un-enumerated powers and Thomas Jefferson, who believed that necessary meant actually "necessary." The problem with Hamilton's meaning is that it would seem to justify so many recent laws and executive orders many in this country would argue are neither necessary or Constitutional. Necessary is in the eye of the beholder and would be capable of being used indiscriminately. What is more, the Necessary and Proper Clause can be invoked on matters that do not have an economic effect.

The most famous case fleshing out the meaning of the Necessary and Proper Clause was McCulloch v. Maryland, in which the Supreme Court ruled that,

The Government of the Union, though limited in its powers, is supreme within its sphere of action, and its laws, when made in pursuance of the Constitution, form the supreme law of the land. There is nothing in the Constitution which excludes incidental or implied powers. If the end be legitimate, and within the scope of the Constitution, all the means which are appropriate and plainly adapted to that end, and which are not prohibited, may be employed to carry it into effect pursuant to the Necessary and Proper clause.
[10]

Justice Scalia has suggested in Gonzales v. Raich that the question of whether an intrastate activity has a "substantial effect" on interstate commerce could alternatively be seen as a matter under the Necessary and Proper Clause. [11]

In Raich, the Supreme Court upheld the use of the Controlled Substances Act (a Federal law) to regulate and interfere with the wholly intrastate production of locally grown, medical marijuana as a valid exercise of the Government's powers under the Commerce Clause and the "cumulative effect" of intrastate activity. Intrastate activity could be regulated if it were to touch on a broader Federal regulatory framework affecting interstate commerce. The Supreme Court's decision in Raich may herald a judicial approval in the present healthcare case of the Federal Government's regulation of purely instrastate activity. Justice Scalia in his concurring opinion set the stage for prospectively using the Necessary and Proper Clause to allow the Federal Government to regulate intrastate activity that would affect a larger system of regulation of interstate commerce through the Commerce Clause.[12]


Complexity of Implications

The Constitution creates a limited federal government with powers that are not enumerated belonging to the people and the individual states. Yet every expanded use of the Government power through the mandate of Federal law, for the purposes of this writing, the Commerce Clause, is one less power to be held by the states or retained by the individual in determining how to live.

How to live has been a fundamental question posed by philosophers from the time of Plato and Aristotle and arguably earlier in ancient Buddhist texts. Today concerns about individual liberty are so often dismissed as the political diatribe of the libertarians or Ron Paul supporters. It is as if popular political discourse rendered in simple ideological terms has hijacked the need for meaningful analysis or discourse. What is lost is that every power surrendered to the Federal government through the Commerce Clause is one less that the individual states and the individual may retain in deciding how to live.

One of the grave implications of a Supreme Court decision upholding the ACA would be that if everything that affects interstate commerce (which, by the reasoning of President Obama's lawyers in defending the ACA, is every imaginable activity) then the states and the individual American are merely custodians or temporary repositories of power, powers, affecting every aspect of American life and powers that may be reclaimed by the Federal government at any time.

This would mean that there are few powers left exclusively to the states. The Federal government would discover its political reach, one power at a time.

The Commerce Clause simply states that Congress shall have power "To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes." The Commerce Clause was intended to facilitate interstate commerce by allowing Congress to prevent states from passing discriminatory restrictions on the free-flow of interstate commerce.[13] To allow Congress to regulate all manner of activities far removed from that end, is to turn our system of a government of limited and enumerated powers on its head. Justice Marshall would find the ACA unconstitutional.

However, if the Supreme Court does not strike down the ACA as unconstitutional, and find the ACA to not violate the Commerce Clause, it would seem to be allowing for the very first time, Congress to use the Commerce Claus to mandate an activity on the part of an American and therefore open the flood gates to mandating any private action.@
R. Tamara de Silva

March 27, 2012 Chicago, Illinois

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and lawyer

Footnotes:
1. 11. 5 U.S. 137 (1803)

2. Id. at pp. 196
3. Think of ERISA, CORBRA, HIPAA, et. al.
4. Interestingly, under the ACA, the largest cost-shifters-illegal aliens that account of $8.1 billion in health care costs and low-income persons that will be covered by an expansion of Medicaid (currently costing $15 billion in costs to health care system) will be exempt from the mandated health care regime of ACA. Shifting the purchasing mandate of the ACA to healthy and voluntarily uninsured individuals-requiring that this group and not the costliest cost-shifters purchase private insurance. See pp. 140 of Eleventh Circuit Opinion
5. Eleventh Circuit opinion at pp. 123
6. 514 U.S. at 557 n.2, 115 S. Ct. at 1629 n.2
7. Id. at 561
8. Eleventh Circuit Opinion at pp. 130-131
9. Jones v. United States, 529 U.S. 848 (2000)
10. 17 U.S. 316, 4 Wheat. 316, 4 L. Ed. 579 (1819)
11. "The regulation of an intrastate activity may be essential to a comprehensive regulation of interstate commerce even though the intrastate activity does not itself "substantially affect" interstate commerce. Moreover, as the passage from Lopez quoted above suggests, Congress may regulate even noneconomic local activity if that regulation is a necessary part of a more general regulation of interstate commerce." Gonzales v. Raich, 545 U.S. !, 33-55 (2005) (Justice Scalia concurring)
12. Id.
13. United States v. Lopez, 514 U.S. 549 (1995) and see also, United States v. Morrison, 529 U.S. 598 (2000)


Sackett v. EPA; Victory for Due Process and a Check on the Clean Water Act

March 21, 2012
Sackett v. EPA; Victory for Due Process and a Check on the Clean Water Act


By R Tamara de Silva
March 21, 2012

Today the United States Supreme Court ruled unanimously in Sackett v. EPA (10-1062)[1] that Chantall and Michael Sackett may bring a Federal civil action under the Administrative Procedure Act ("APA") to challenge the issuance of an EPA compliance order that had prevented them from building a home on their land. The importance of this ruling is that it constitutes a victory for due process for all Americans confronted by the EPA with crime.

Congress invents a new crime on average every week for every week of the year.[2] Departments of the Executive Branch have established regulations and rulings that further criminalize innocuous crime (what I mean here by innocuous is "crime" lacking the existence of any wrongful or criminal intent on the part of the alleged wrong-doer). These often esoteric regulations number in the hundreds of thousands. There are steep economic costs to all this rule making and quite often they are borne by ordinary Americans with limited resources-unable to fight a government with comparatively unlimited prosecutorial and administrative budgets. A case that illustrates this well is that of that of the Sacketts.

Keep in mind, the Federal government spends billions of dollars on prosecutions based upon theories of strict liability for obscure crimes honored more in their breach than by their rule often because the crimes lack definition. On example, which is at the heart of the Sacketts case is the Clean Water Act. The Clean Water Act prohibits, "the discharge of any pollutant by any person," without a permit, into the "navigable waters." The term "navigable waters" is defined in the Clean Water Act as, "the waters of the United States," §1362(7). The problem, identified by the Court in its ruling today, but has been obvious to so many of us for decades is that no where is the meaning of "the waters of the United States" defined or made clear. Not anywhere.

While ignorance of the law is never a defense for its violation, no American can be apprised of or know, not even the most seasoned and ancient criminal defense lawyer, all the hundreds of thousands of statutes and regulations any American must prescribe his conduct by at all times so as not to run afoul of the law.

In the Sacketts case, a couple in rural Idaho in 2008 were days away from clearing away their land (land which is close to Priest Lake but landlocked), in order to build their home. They had obtained all requisite local licenses and permits. The EPA visited them and announced that they were to cease and desist building or in any way doing anything with their land because it was on Federal wetlands and their affecting their land in any manner would constitute a violation of the Clean Water Act. The Sacketts asked for proof. The EPA pointed them to National Fish and Wildlife Wetlands Inventory. When the Sacketts showed the EPA that their property was not listed as a wetland according to the National Fish and Wildlife Wetlands Inventory, the EPA simply declined to provide any further rationale for its decision. It did however, issue an administrative compliance order stating that the Sackett's failure to cease and desist doing anything on their land would result in penalties of up to $75,000 per day for violations of the Clean Water Act plus possible criminal prosecution. The Order also required that the Sacketts fence off their property after replacing all the landfill they had cleared, replacing all the vegetation that had been removed, and that they monitor their now fenced in land, that they were not to otherwise touch, for a period of three years. The Sacketts asked the EPA for a hearing on the order but the EPA refused.

Due process would have required that the Sacketts receive some opportunity to be heard by the EPA or some reviewing entity. The Sacketts filed a complaint in Federal court for a review of the EPA's order under the APA. The Federal court dismissed the Sackett's complaint (the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals subsequently affirmed the dismissal) on the grounds that they could not review the order because it was not a "final action" from EPA.

The Supreme Court's opinion written by Justice Scalia found that the Sacketts did have a right to judicial review of the Administrative Compliance Order because the Order "has all the hallmarks of APA finality" because it imposes legal obligations, states the penalties and other repercussions of non-compliance, and according to the EPA, final in that the EPA did not think it was subject to any further EPA review. Other than coming to Federal Court, the Sacketts had no other means of redress.

The Government argued that allowing judicial review of EPA actions would impede the EPA's ability to regulate land as efficiently. This is almost like saying that were there a judicial review (a actual check and balance on the EPA), of the EPA's compliance orders, the EPA would not be able to act with as much unbridled power. Justice Scalia was not impressed by the Government's logic when he replied that the APA's presumption of judicial review applies to other agencies and it,

is a repudiation of the principle that efficiency of regulation conquers all. And there is no reason to think that the Clean Water Act was uniquely designed to enable the strong-arming of regulated parties into "voluntary compliance" without the opportunity for judicial review--even judicial review of the question whether the regulated party is within the EPA's jurisdiction
.


My favorite part of the decision was the concurring opinion written by Justice Alito, which ought to comfort property owners having to contend with the EPA, and chastises Congress for the perfectly unclear nature of the Clean Water Act.

Justice Alito writes,

The position taken in this case by the Federal Government--a position that the Court now squarely rejects-- would have put the property rights of ordinary Americans entirely at the mercy of Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employees.

The reach of the Clean Water Act is notoriously unclear. Any piece of land that is wet at least part of the year is in danger of being classified by EPA employees as wetlands covered by the Act, and according to the Federal Government, if property owners begin to construct a home on a lot that the agency thinks possesses the requisite wetness, the property owners are at the agency's mercy.


The Sackett's get to return to Federal court but there is no guarantee they will prevail. This is far better than giving them or anyone else no recourse whatsoever when the EPA seemingly arbitrarily decides to violate an individual's property rights. Justice Alito,

The Court's decision provides a modest measure of relief. At least, property owners like petitioners will have the right to challenge the EPA's jurisdictional determination under the Administrative Procedure Act. But the combination of the uncertain reach of the Clean Water Act and the draconian penalties imposed for the sort of violations alleged in this case still leaves most property owners with little practical alternative but to dance to the EPA's tune. Real relief requires Congress to do what it should have done in the first place: provide a reasonably clear rule re- garding the reach of the Clean Water Act.


Sadly, Justice Alito's admonishment to Congress will likely go as far as the saying of throwing pearls before swine. Congress ought to pay more thought to what laws it writes. The Due Process Clause of the United States Constitution requires that no one be made to guess, when their life and liberty is at stake, as to the meaning of a criminal statute. Violation of the Clean Water Act carries with it the possibility of criminal prosecution. Laws enforced by the EPA and other departments of the Executive Branch that carry the penalty of a loss of freedom must be absolutely clearly in apprising all of what conduct is prescribed and what is not. All must know what the Government commands or forbids. The Sackett case is an illustration of this but there are only about 300,000 other regulations that may or most likely may not apprise otherwise law-abiding Americans what the Government may or may not punish.@

R Tamara de Silva

Chicago, Illinois
March 21, 2012

R Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and lawyer

Footnotes:
1. http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/11pdf/10-1062.pdf
2. From 2000 through 2007, Congress enacted 452 new criminal offenses. http://www.heritage.org/Research/Factsheets/2011/04/OVERCRIMINALIZATION-An-Explosion-of-Federal-Criminal-Law

MF Global Bankuptcy Revisited: Gary Gensler's Conflicted Role

February 3, 2012

MF Global Bankuptcy Revisited: Gary Gensler's Conflicted Role


By R. Tamara de Silva

February 3, 2012


Does anyone police the regulators? Are more regulators needed to police regulators for conflicts of interest that at least superficially would seem to affect their judgment? And why must we as a society perpetually add to a body of existing regulations just because we seem unable to effectively enforce the ones we already have? I ask all this in thinking about Gary Gensler, the current Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC"). There is a legal standard for causality, the "but for" rule. Under this legal standard, had Mr. Gensler not been involved with Jon Corzine, $1.2 billion in customer funds may not have gone missing. In hindsight, Mr. Gensler's conflicts of interest regarding MF Global required policing.

MF Global filed for bankruptcy in the amount of $41 billion on October 31, 2011 after a loss of confidence over the firm's $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt. Since then, while most of the missing $1.2 billion in customer funds has been located, in excess of $600 million in customer money remains missing. There are no guarantees, the commodity customers from whom most of the money was lost, will regain their money. As of this writing, it is still not known what happened to the lost money nor why it has remained unaccounted for three months.

I suggest a possible conflict of interest between Jon Corzine and Mr. Gensler based upon their friendship, and a common political and professional involvement. What follows is a laundry list of connections-the applicability to MF Global comes later. For starters, Jon Corzine was the Chairman of Goldman Sachs during part of the eighteen years that Gary Gensler worked at Goldman Sachs. Mr. Gensler donated $10,000 to Corzine's campaign for governor of New Jersey. They worked together in Congress when Corzine was a Senator and Mr. Gensler a Senate aide. They worked closely together drafting large portions of the investor protection act, Sarbanes Oxley, while Corzine served on the Senate Banking Committee. In 2010, Corzine invited Gensler to lecture at Princeton about financial regulation and Gensler also spoke to the audience assembled about his friendship with Corzine. Gensler donated $300,000 to the prominent Democratic candidates including President Obama and Hillary Clinton. Corzine has been one of President Obama's elite bundlers, this past April 2011, alone holding an exclusive fundraiser from his Manhattan apartment where he was able to pass the hat around for more than $500,000. Gensler authored much of the Dodd-Frank Act and analysts like Sandler and O'Neill Partners wrote that they expected Corzine's contacts in Washington as he took over as CEO of MF Global in 2010 to help him "navigates a shifting regulatory environment."[ 1]

Conflicts of interest are ubiquitous on Wall Street and deserving a voluminous treatment. The tension between principal and agent is entrenched and accepted.

But is not just on Wall Street and not just between the principal and agent that conflicts of interest reside-they are everywhere-in politics, between the State and the governed, the employee and the employer, at credit ratings agencies, really at some level in every aspect of our public and personal life. It seems that government agencies are inclined to grow and expand seemingly without limit, an interest or will to power, entirely distinct from merely serving the governed well. I am conflicted between my love for pizza and bikinis. What is problematic about conflicts of interests are that among competing interests, something has to give and what usually does is the fiduciary duty of either the agent of the principal. No public figure and no investment bank can be all things to all competing interests- there is often a tension between shareholder profits, trader profits and a customer's best interests. Contrary to the silly ideas that many belch out, there is no simple cure either. What is the evidence of a conflict of interest, if any, in Mr. Gensler's role as Chairman of the CFTC and the fall of MF Global?

Bankruptcy proceedings under conflicting regulatory regimes.

As if things have not been bad for MF Global's customers since October 2011, they became much worse when two days ago on February 1, 2012, Judge Martin Glenn of the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that the commodity customers of MF Global (the majority of people whose money was lost) do not have any priority over other creditors in the firm's bankruptcy proceedings. Had the customers with segregated accounts at MF Global been given priority status, they would be assured of receiving all of their missing money, before any other creditors, like JP Morgan Chase were paid.

There are two dueling regimes under which MF Global's assets in bankruptcy could have been adjudicated-one for securities broker dealers and one for commodity brokers. MF Global was both a broker-dealer and a commodity broker. Broker dealers are liquidated in accordance with the provisions of the Securities Investor Protection Act ("SIPA"), and a SIPC-appointed trustee oversees the liquidation.

MF Global was also a commodities broker or futures commission merchant ('FCM"). Commodity brokers are liquidated in accordance with the provisions of Subchapter IV of Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.[2 ] According to this bankruptcy regime, customer funds must be identified, kept separate and are not made available to pay for a firm's obligations to other creditors of the FCM. Under this second regulatory regime, a trustee overseeing the liquidation in bankruptcy of an FCM must apply the CFTC's Regulation part 190 (CFTC derives its authority to make this rule under the Commodity Exchange Act or CEA), which holds that commodity customer must receive priority over all other creditors of an FCM in the event of bankruptcy.[ 3]

Judge Glenn wrongly decided that the operative bankruptcy regime for MF Global should be that used for a broker-dealer rather than a commodities broker. Judge Glenn was able to disregard or may not have been presented with the fact that most of MF Global's business was in commodities and not securities. According to one of my sources, MF Global had 50,000 futures customer accounts and 400 customer accounts in securities.

This ruling is made worse when one considers that many of the customers whose missing money totaled $1.2 billion were small traders who invested with MF Global perhaps because they were not able to open accounts with larger institutions.

Did Gary Gensler play a role in deciding upon an SIPA bankruptcy a decision that would harm thousands of commodity account holders and forever damage investor confidence in the commodity markets- in lieu of choosing a bankruptcy regime based upon the CEA and CFTC's Regulation part 190? There are those like the blog, "MFGFACTS," who would argue that he did just that but the evidence cited appears to be invisible.[ 4 ]

Before Gensler recused himself from the CFTC's investigation of MF Global, he had participated in two closed-door CFTC meetings on October 31, 2011 and November 2, 2011-the purpose of both meetings was according to Bloomberg News, MF Global's bankruptcy.[5 ] Senator Pat Roberts sent Gensler a letter on November 10, 2011 demanding to know what was discussed between Gensler and his staff regarding MF Global's bankruptcy during these meetings.[6 ]

But to be fair, no one has yet presented any actual proof that Gensler believed the appointment of a SIPC trustee (an automatic occurrence I think in the event of the broker dealer going bankrupt) would preclude the utilization of a CEA based bankruptcy proceeding. If some deal was struck as a favor to institutional creditors like Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan Chase over small farmers in Iowa, no proof has come to light.

The CFTC to its credit, filed a reply brief on January 18, 2012 urging the bankruptcy court to apply the bankruptcy provisions of the CEA and CFTC that would give MF Global's commodity customers priority over all other creditors and warning that a prior filing by MF Global's bankruptcy Trustee Louis Freeh contained, "errors and misstatements of law that, if accepted, may inhibit commodity customers from recovering their property."[ 7]

Gensler differs to Corzine's lobbying and MF Global allowed to make bets on European debt

The stage was set for MF Global on February 3, 2005, when the CFTC published proposed amendments to its Rule 1.25, which governed what types of investments an FCM may make of customer segregated funds. Before 2000, FCMs and designated clearing organizations ("DCOs") were only permitted to invest in United States debt (including municipal and state debt). On May 17, 2005, the CFTC published final rules that further amended Rule 1.25 to allow for the practice of FCMs using repurchase agreements called "repos" with customer funds. The size of the repo market in the United States alone is $1.6 trillion.

A repo is simply the sale of a security (typically a government debt) tied to an agreement to buy the securities back later. A reverse-repo is the purchase of a security tied to an agreement to sell back later. Repos are essentially loans secured against a security. The interest rate received is called the repo rate. The party that sells a security agreeing to buy it back in the future at a higher price later is engaging in a repurchase agreement. The party that agrees to buy the security and sell it back in the future is engaging in a reverse repo.

Corzine took over as CEO of MF Global around March 2010. According to its former risk manager, Michael Roseman in his testimony yesterday before the House Oversight Committee, by October 2010, MF Global bets on European debt were $4 billion. The use of repos by MF Global would have permitted the firm to leverage customer deposits, although it is unknown that they did. However, leverage of 30:1 or greater, through the use of repos would have resulted in larger losses if the repos were in sovereign European debt. This does not mean that repos are per se instruments of financial destruction.

Repos are part of what is the shadow banking system. I would define shadow banking as simply the collection of unregulated activities (repos, credit default sways and collateralized debt obligations, etc) engaged in by regulated and unregulated entities. Shadow banking like is very like traditional banking (other than existing regulations do not address it) and it provides a very important supply of short-term credit.

CFTC Rule 1.25 governs the investment of customer funds by an FCM.


(a) Permitted investments. (1) Subject to the terms and conditions set forth in this section, a futures commission merchant or a derivatives clearing organization may invest customer money in the following instruments (permitted investments):
(i) Obligations of the United States and obligations fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States (U.S. government securities);
(ii) General obligations of any State or of any political subdivision thereof (municipal securities);
(iii) General obligations issued by any enterprise sponsored by the United States (government sponsored enterprise securities);
(iv) Certificates of deposit issued by a bank (certificates of deposit) as defined in section 3(a)(6) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or a domestic branch of a foreign bank that carries deposits insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation;
(v) Commercial paper;
(vi) Corporate notes or bonds;
(vii) General obligations of a sovereign nation [emphasis added]; and

In late 2010, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission -- one of MF Global's regulators -- proposed changing one of its regulations, known as rule 1.25, to limit the kinds of investments that firms like MF Global could make using their customers' idle funds, including risky debt of sovereign nations. It was Corzine himself who lobbied for the change in Rule 1.25 to allow for customer-segregated funds to be held in foreign debt instruments.

On July 20, 2011, Corzine said, he "took part" in a conference call with CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler in which MF Global executives made clear their opposition to any changes in rule 1.25. On the call, Corzine said, he argued that the repo transactions with other broker-dealers should be permitted "because such transactions could be beneficial to" firms like MF Global.

Later that same afternoon, Corzine and his General Counsel at MF Global again called the CFTC and again reiterated their view that rule 1.25 should be left alone. Gensler complied.

Had Mr. Gensler changed CFTC Rule 1.25 as he was supposed to do after the passage of Dodd-Frank and not given into lobbying by Corzine, I would not be writing this and $600 million in customer money would not still and inexplicably be lost.

In an irony almost too much to bear, Commissioner Gensler told Reuters this past Wednesday that he, "has ordered an extensive review of how futures brokerages are regulated, following the collapse of MF Global three months ago." Is this like his recusal this past November anything other than a belated grasp at having clean hands or another smokescreen?

Why now impose more regulation on an industry that he and Corzine single-handedly played a role in damaging perhaps (though I hope not) beyond complete repair. MF Global would not have gone bankrupt but for Gensler and Corzine choosing not to amend Rule 1.25, an amendment that would have wholly prohibited MF Global's European bets. Congress should think clearly and focus on Corzine and Gensler's conflict of interest instead of inviting C-Span to broadcast itself yet again, as it did today, chasing a stream of red herrings for causation in the form of credit ratings agencies, credible risk officers and the exchanges.@
R. Tamara de Silva

Chicago, Illinois
February 3, 2012

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and securities lawyer

Any questions about this article should be directed to tamara@desilvalawoffices.com

Footnotes:
1. http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203716204577017690988427040.html?mg=reno-secaucus-wsj
2. http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/11C7.txt
3. http://www.cftc.gov/foia/fedreg01/foi010313a.htm
4. http://mfgfacts.com/2012/01/23/cftc-warnings-when-bankruptcy-codes-conflict-and-a-still-secret-meeting/
5. http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/files/Bankruptcy_MF_Global_News.pdf
6. http://roberts.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=74611db5-23ab-49cb-b402-8746af7e3ad0&ContentType_id=3f3ae205-d90c-46c5-b01f-1384c66087b9&5fb5b58b-28f7-4b2f-8355-c1cd481e9229&ae7a6475-a01f-4da5-aa94-0a98973de620&6acbbd86-fc
7. http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/cftcreplybrief011812.pdf

Comparing the Incomparable- Credit Ratings Agencies Revisited

January 17, 2012
Comparing the Incomparable- Credit Ratings Agencies Revisited


By R. Tamara de Silva
January 17, 2011

Yesterday, Standard & Poor's relieved the Eurozone's bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility ("EFSF") of its AAA credit rating, possibly hampering the fund's ability to contain the European debt crisis. This comes on the heel's of the S&P stripping both France and Austria of their triple-A rating in favor of a rating of AA+.[1] The effect of the S&P downgrade may be negative. Ratings agencies exist to level asymmetries in information and evaluate risk but one of their inherent oddities is that they seek to compare things whose differences in scale make them incomparable. Ratings agencies also have conflicts of interests, they often evaluate financial products (like collateralized debt obligations) that they do not understand, they seem to lack fixed ways to measure absolute risk, and they are at times, catastrophically wrong.

Elephants and aardvarks

Downgrades should not be considered in a vacuum. When the ratings agencies equate economies based upon ability to repay debt, they artificially equate countries disregarding factors such as size, geo-political risk and political infrastructure that make their comparisons odd.

S&P announced on August 5, 2011 that it would downgrade the credit rating of the United States. Interestingly it announced during the last day of this same month that while the world's only superpower and largest economy would now get only a AA+ rating, securities backed by sub-prime home loans, the same type of investments that led to the worst financial debacle since the Depression (and one from which we have not yet arguably recovered) would receive its once coveted triple AAA rating...unlike the United States.

There is no question that the United States will be able to repay its debts, we will continue to print more money-the larger issue is the continual erosion in the Dollar over time. Although a currency cannot be devalued ad infinitum without catastrophic results, at least for the time being, there is no credible replacement for the Dollar continuing to be the world's reserve currency. No other nation has the assets to back up being the world's reserve currency.

Looking at the S&P's downgrade of the United States in a vacuum, one would think that it is more prudent (according to all three ratings agencies), to prefer Austria, Denmark, Norway, France, Germany, Singapore, Luxemburg, the Swiss or even Finland. There is no consensus by all three agencies on countries like Hong Kong, Australia and the Isle of Mann. Yet other than ratings, the similarity ends there. Comparing the United States, the largest and most analyzed economy in the world with relatively petite nations like Luxemburg and Finland are like comparing the teeth of an otter and an elephant-one is so remarkably larger than the other that a comparison seems problematic. Admittedly both animals have teeth. Or like comparing the speed of an elephant and an aardvark.

To put the utility of comparison between the United States, which has a GDP of $14.657 trillion, in perspective, here are the GDPs of some of the remaining triple AAA rated countries in 2010 according to the IMF [2] :

• Luxemburg has a GDP of $52.43 billion,
• Germany's GDP is $3.314 trillion (largest in the EU)
• France $ 2.582 trillion,
• United Kingdom $2.172 trillion
• Lichtenstein $4.83 billion
• China $10 trillion (largest behind United States)


Comparing the largest most innovate, most scrutinized economy in the world to a nation like China is humorous because in terms of actual accounting standards, any meaningful transparency, the complete absence of a stable democracy or political freedoms-China is a peasant country. When the United States is downgraded, there is no other United States to compare it to, so to some extent, the rating downgrade may not be absolutely everything the media proclaims it to be.

Effect of downgrade on United States so far

When the markets opened on the first Monday after S&P's downgrade of the United States, the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond's yield dropped to 2.5%. Price, which is inverse to yield in bonds, has continued to increase even approaching all-time historic levels. This past August, the 10-year yield dropped almost 60 basis points, piercing below 2% (lower than their historic all-time low in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed). The demand for United States' Treasuries has increased dramatically immediately following the S&P downgrade.

If the United States were deemed less credit worthy (less likely to pay its creditors), then investors and bond holders would demand higher returns for buying any U.S. debt/bonds. The very ability of the United States to borrow money by issuing bonds would be jeopardized. The market has ruled against this logic and to a large extent against S&P-justifiably so.

Remember a government bond is a debt instrument issued by a national government denominated in that government's currency. United States Treasury securities are valued in US dollars-their price is in United States Dollars.

A risk-free interest rate is the nominal rate of return for an investment with no risk (no credit risk) [3] of financial loss. The risk-free rate of return for almost all this century was the yield of United States Treasuries.

graph.pdf

Why would the market seemingly disregard the opinion of S&P? Perhaps because many people remembered that during the housing bubble, sketchy loans (once again I proffer this as a new legal term of art) were repackaged by investment banks into investment pools and other mortgage backed securities and received the gold standard of financial ratings, the coveted and in theory elusive, AAA rating by the largest credit ratings agencies, including S&P and Moody's. S&P's granting of triple AAA ratings to companies and investment vehicles that turned into junk ratings caused $2 trillion in losses to everyone that relied on them-basically, everyone. No one else seemed to find it ironic that this same agency told the United States by how much it thought its debt should be lowered.

Conflicts of interest and fraud

But back to the credit ratings agencies... Not that long ago, in August 2010 and again in July of 2010, the SEC threatened to charge all three ratings agencies with fraud. Some would say better late than never. During the housing bubble, sketchy loans (I use this as a new legal term of art) were repackaged by investment banks into investment pools and other mortgage backed securities and received the gold standard of financial ratings, the coveted and in theory elusive, AAA rating by the largest credit ratings agencies, including S&P and Moody's. The agencies' granting of triple AAA ratings to companies and investment vehicles that turned into junk ratings caused billions if not trillions of dollars in losses to everyone that relied on them-basically, everyone. The credit ratings agencies are paid by the issuers (their clients) of the securities they were supposed to evaluate, creating an inherent conflict of interest. They were the game's referee and one of its players at the same time.

The SEC report on Credit Ratings Agencies from June 2007 identified another problem other than having the referee in a match being paid by one of the sides, (not the investors or the public's side mind you), that prevented the agencies from giving accurate ratings. The agencies could not give accurate ratings of many of the instruments involved in the housing bubble and credit crisis because of the complexity of the transactions involved and the inability of agencies to understand what they were analyzing.

One could argue that the agencies were not engaging in a deliberate (alright not a horribly deliberate) fraud, that is having a public position of trust, being paid and knowing they cannot do what they are assigned to do but pretending to do it anyway. Mind you, if anyone else had engaged in this behavior, they would have likely been indicted for fraud and possibly RICO.

What may let the agencies off the hook is that they relied on the issuers' (the clients again, usually investment banks) audit committees. Audit committees cannot seem to be comprised of Chia Pets in human dimension. The fact that these committees represented having signed off on the financial instruments in question should mean something-if not, why have these corporate committees?!

Furthermore, one could argue that the credit ratings agencies must not be held responsible for their ratings because they did not and could not have understood the trading transactions taking place at the investment banks because they had to rely on the information they were given which was not itself transparent.

A possible longer term solution to the conflict of interest driven nature of the credit ratings agencies is to take away the compensation structure of the credit ratings agencies and deregulate them completely in-order to discourage inherent conflict of interest or use the Credit Spread Market-problem solved! Take away what is essentially a government-sponsored monopoly of credit ratings agencies and allow investor paid credit ratings agencies, which could open up the market and privatize the ratings industry. Without credit ratings agencies, the market will determine value more efficiently than the analysts at the agencies. A problem with this approach is that there might be variance between the ratings of twenty agencies as opposed to just three, causing the rating on any one agency to mean less and to make more work for risk managers.

No liability

S&P has somehow avoided to this very day, all criminal and civil liability for its part in the most recent financial crisis. If the agencies had some liability for their ratings, they may have a better incentive for assuring that they got them right. Neither the Justice Department nor the SEC (which has itself managed to miss all the major financial debacles of the past five years) has ever charged S&P with criminal conflict of interest (as they in practice do and would do to any number of much smaller economic participants with a much smaller fields of damage). Neither the Justice Department nor the SEC has gone after S&P for admitting before Congress in 2008 and 2009, that their being paid by the issuers (their clients) of the securities they were supposed to evaluate, created an inherent conflict of interest and did in fact wrongly influence their ratings.

Nobody has charged the S&P with criminal fraud or fraud on the marketplace for taking money from issuers in simple bad faith (playing the part of the referee and judge in a boxing match after being paid by one of the boxers) for rating securities, they admitted in sworn testimony they did not understand!

This sordid tale has no end. According to Bloomberg, S&P is giving its self-coveted triple AAA rating to junk,

"Standard & Poor's is giving a higher rating to securities backed by subprime home loans, the same type of investments that led to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, than it assigns the U.S. government.
S&P is poised to provide AAA grades to 59 percent of Springleaf Mortgage Loan Trust 2011-1, a set of bonds tied to $497 million lent to homeowners with below-average credit scores and almost no equity in their properties."
[4]


A spokesperson for S&P when asked about why it would give its higher rating of triple AAA yet again to subprime securities repackaged by many of the scions of AIG and Goldman that participated in causing the Credit Crisis and profited from its bailout simply stated, "We believe our ultimate success will be driven by the value investors derive from our ratings and analysis."
However, it is not honest, however much one is paid, to issue a triple AAA rating to what Bloomberg calls,

"More than 14,000 securitized bonds in the U.S. are rated AAA by S&P, backed by everything from houses and malls to auto- dealer loans and farm-equipment leases, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,"

and not the United States of America.

Relatively speaking

Size matters. Pension funds and many of the largest institutional investors have rules about what investments they may invest in and these rules are based on the ratings given to investments by the credit ratings agencies. Consider that Australia, Andorra, Bermuda, Canada, Cook Islands, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom retain their triple-A ratings.[5] These countries represent less than 21% of the world's collective GDP...my math may be slightly off. If investment funds were limited to investing in triple-A products, it would be preposterous to think that less than 21% of the economy of the world would fund the remaining 79%.

Another weakness of the credit ratings agencies is that there is no set standard employed for measuring absolute risk. What I mean by absolute risk is the measure in gambling parlance, of the risk of ruin. Wall Street and regulators have, in the example of a bank lets say, no better way other than asking for capital ratios to ascertain a bank's risk or ruin. Other factors, like the value of assets and counterparty transactions lack still, even in 2012, transparency.

Because the credit ratings agencies share this problem of being unable to objectively ascertain absolute risk, they lag the markets' own detections of absolute and relative risk. For example, the agencies did not foresee the Latin American debt crises, the European debt crisis, AIG, the Credit Crisis, Enron, Worldcom, or even MF Global. In this sense, credit ratings agencies look backwards better than they can look ahead. Arguably, there are extremely few economists or market participants that can look ahead-this may be a wholly unfair criticism...except this is part of the reason for having the ratings agencies.

The most obvious problems with the existing regulatorily instituted regime of three credit ratings agencies is that they have no competition, no real accountability because they have to be utilized even when wrong, and no liability. This oligopoly ought to be dismantled and the private sector should be allowed to get into the ratings game in the same way that analysts exists in the financial markets for every other type of investment. Doing so would eliminate the existing conflicts of interests within the credit ratings agencies and allow investors to pay the private ratings agencies for their research. Competition will have to drive the caliber of research and ratings upward.

Sadly, nothing in the gargantuan 2,300 page Dodd-Frank Act or that has been discussed in the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs addresses the problems with the credit ratings agencies...the same ones that contributed to our recent financial crisis.@

R. Tamara de Silva

Chicago, Illinois
January 17, 2012

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and securities lawyer

Footnotes:
1. The EFSF's ratings are derived from its backers and France and Austria were two of the largest guarantors behind Germany. S&P's downgrade of the EFSF will mean the fund has 440 billion less in Euros than before the downgrade.
2. These numbers are adjusted by PPP (purchasing power parity), basis-this takes into account, relative cost of living and inflation rates, rather than just exchange rates.
3. There are other risks like inflation risk (the principal returned on a debt instrument upon maturity would have less purchasing power) and currency risk (the Dollar could as it has, decline in value relative to other currencies).
4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-31/subprime-mortgage-bonds-getting-aaa-rating-s-p-denies-to-u-s-treasuries.html
5. http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=E

In Defense of Private Capital and Capitalism

January 14, 2012


In Defense of Private Capital and Capitalism

By R. Tamara de Silva
January 14, 2012


Is Mitt Romney guilty of capitalism? His opponents in the race for presidential nominee of the Republican Party have converged in their rhetoric and ideology with the Democratic Party and President Obama to decry that Romney's actions at Bain Capital and the private equity model in particular, are wrong, so extremely wrong that they make him wholly unworthy of consideration of President of the United States. Whether or not the latter conclusion is true or false, their argument is not evidence of either conclusion. I have read that a majority of Americans tune out politicians unless they stand to benefit from a specific government program or benefit-this would be a rational instance of when to tune them out.[1 ] The Democrats and accusing Republicans are in error about private equity and capitalism. What is worse they are placing populism above this country's core principles.

"If someone who is very wealthy comes in and takes over your company and takes out all the cash and leaves behind the unemployment? I don't think any conservative wants to get caught defending that kind of model." This quotation, which could have been from David Axelrod or President Obama, was actually from Newt Gingrich. In other words, conservatives cannot defend capitalism if it means that people will lose jobs.

Some history is helpful. Job creation and job retention are not the primary motivations for innovation and industry in the United States, they have never been. Job creation gained traction in the public discourse when it used as a justification for the government spending TARP funds-the rationale being that the government's spending would create a soft landing for the economy, lessen the economic impact of the recession and Credit Crisis and create (albeit often temporary and expensive) jobs. Yet it is not job creation that has motivated this country's most celebrated capitalists but profit motive or sometimes the pursuit of excellence expressed as an idea. Henry Ford did not start building his own self-propelled vehicles that ran on gasoline in order to create jobs any more than Steve Jobs began building personal computers to create jobs.

Hard Edges

We may not be in an economic crisis but a period of economic change. Capitalism has hard edges, especially in periods of extremely rapid economic change. Failure and obsolescence are the sina qua non of capitalism. What Mr. Gingrich's statement is missing is the possibility that America and the rest of the developed world are in the midst of period of rapid flux.

Almost without exception, most neo-classical economic theory holds that crises do not persist indefinitely, because economic systems revert to some equilibrium or balance. Perhaps, America and Western Europe as seen by the possible collapse of the European monetary union, may by in as much a period of economic change as it is in crisis. The distinction is important because if we are in a period of rapid economic change, things may not get better exactly as we expect them to-they will change.[ 2 ]

We may be in the midst of another economic revolution akin to that of the Industrial Revolution. Alternatively, we may be seeing disruptive technologies change the world and create economic upheaval (the hard edges) in the form of extreme wealth and extreme poverty as we saw in the close aftermath of the steam engine, the internal combustion engine, the railway and the utilization of electricity.

The world has never been, not at any time since mastery of the seas meant dominance in trade-not even during the silk trade--as interconnected as it is now. Technologies like the Internet and information technology have been both disruptive and creative at once, and at a breathtaking pace. The face of manufacturing, as we have recognized it for most of the twentieth century has itself changed, so has its importance as a percentage and engine of economic growth. It has been replaced by other sectors including and perhaps infamously, the financial services sector described by the term financialization. Just as what happened one hundred years ago, politicians lobbied for groups that were nearing obsolescence, but were unable to stop change itself. We see changes in the countless examples of relatively lower skilled, high paying jobs that have been erased and may never return. In periods of rapid economic change, settled patterns of work are upended. Another factor is the creation of disparate wealth between wealthy superclasses (robber barons) and everyone else, including the newly displaced.

Bain Capital, Private Equity and Venture Capital

It is easiest to extol the virtues of free markets and capitalism when able to toss in Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Thomas Edison or Henry Ford as stunning examples of its success- but to be fair, these people are eight sigma events. Most capitalists are hardly this glamorous, they never make magazine covers, and their stories and personages are decidedly more bland if not just boring-fitting very well into the fat middle of a normal bell curve. Mitt Romney has been roundly accused of being unpardonably bland but this is not an economic transgression. Attacks on his career at Bain Capital are misplaced because both the private and venture capital business models provide extremely important social and economic functions.

Romney and Bain Capital are charged with making too much money, having businesses fail and alternatively, causing some of the most sympathetic people in North America to lose their jobs. The fallacy of these arguments are legion.

Bain Capital is primarily a private equity firm that also has a venture capital arm. Private equity firms invest by buying ownership of companies where they see the potential for a return for themselves, a return they capture by later selling the company at a profit to another party or parties either in the private or public markets (they sometimes retain acquired companies). Private equity investors can be more sophisticated than other corporate governors and in theory be better managers- thereby using their unique vantage point and experience to create wealth for investors.

Venture capitalists take a lot of risk, often investing their own money in start-ups and the new companies of entrepreneurs in the hopes of finding the next Google, or Apple. Both private equity and venture capitalists are rewarded for being able to recognize the best entrepreneurs, the best ideas, and helping to bring them to market by financing them, so that the world profits from the next iPhone, the next life-saving technology or Google.

No one in either industry risks their own or their investors' money expecting to fail. They would not stay in business if they did.

Sometimes, as the bi-partisan critics point out, people in companies acquired by private equity lose their jobs. One of the reasons for this is that private equity turns companies around by making them more efficient. This is often accomplished by getting rid of excess layers of management, unnecessary employees and generally, "bloat." It is important to remember that what is considered "excessive" in layers of management or how "bloated" a company may look-is largely subjective. Profit motive is the engine of capitalism, not job retention.[3 ]

When we introduce terms like "looting" which is a loaded term it is important to keep in mind that this is also a subjective term. Romney's critics are looking at Bain in hindsight...with some not insubstantial measure of bias. Also consider, that the world may be changing at a rapid place and some degree of job displacement may be the norm.

Investing in companies and trying to turn them around is not as easy it is sounds. It also involves an appetite for risk that most people do not have. A majority of businesses fail within two years of sooner after their inception (even if they are not distressed to start before being acquired by a Bain Capital).

Taking risk is nonetheless commendable. Taking huge risks can lead to catastrophic failure or success. I read somewhere that Thomas Edison failed well over 1,000 times before successfully creating the lightbulb. But he made in well in excess of 1,000 attempts and had the stomach to endure that much defeat-this is not common. Facebook, and Google were not guaranteed to successes. There is only one Mark Zuckerberg and only one Steve Jobs. If a high failure rate did not come with taking significant risks, there would be a 100,000 Bill Gates as opposed to just one. Looking at Bain's record, I am reminded of the Pareto Principle or 80/20 rule--that 80 percent of the effects are the result of 20 percent of the causes.

Overall, venture capitalists do well and their importance to the economy cannot be disputed. Venture capital is responsible for 12.1 million private sector jobs or about 11% of total private sector jobs that collectively generate $2.9 trillion in revenue.[4 ] Private and venture capital firms are responsible for most jobs in the software, telecom and semiconductor industries.[ 5]

Slavery and Principles in Opposition

The Founders has a very odd notion for their time, the idea that people were born with natural rights-not granted by a monarch or a government but actually born with rights, rights inherent to all individuals. This was a radical idea!

While there is no pure form or capitalism, capitalism is more conducive to individual freedom and human rights than any other system.[6 ] It simply trumps all alternatives. Capitalism promotes the opposite of slavery and is conducive a core principle deeply held by the Founding Fathers - that human beings have human rights. Self-ownership, the opposite of slavery is one of them.

This also comes with the harsh reality that some people will not succeed and must fail in a capitalist system. Because in a larger sense, it really makes no difference whether capitalism works perfectly or not-it is the legally instituted economic system most opposite of slavery.

Candidates for the Presidency, including the incumbent, like all politicians crave power so much that they must feed populist tendencies which, are based on emotion regardless of whether they cannibalize this country's core principles. All of the arguments against Bain Capital are populist ones designed to enrage, and excite anger and envy. They seek to alter the capitalist system by selectively identifying what parts of a free market are acceptable at a moment in time and what are not--and to suggest improper conduct where there is no evidence of any illegality (other than profit) by imposing the same arbitrary values-envy not being a great value by the way.

Some principles have to be above populist tendencies or we will have no principles standing. Steve Jobs and Henry Ford are good examples against these populist arguments-their motivations were never job creation or job retention but their economic enrichment-in pursuing these narrow goals they changed the world. Insisting that job creation or retention trump the motive of wealth creation, is something entirely other than capitalism.

Adam Smith's first great work before The Wealth of Nations was The Theory of Moral Sentiments, which made the case for sympathy as a foundation for human relationships in a civil society. Politics plays a large role in human relationships especially when it is used as lever to ignite class warfare and to institutionalize envy. Populism must never be used as a political campaign, however convenient or effective, because it ultimately enrages and divides a nation at its core, and sometimes these divisions cannot be healed.

Instead of attacking Bain Capital, all the candidates from both parties ought to address what harms capitalism (other than themselves obviously). If it were just Adam Smith's animal spirits competing and the fiercest winning, we would not have government subsidies, tax breaks and bailouts--all selectively doled out for a few-not all. Not even a Fed giving free money to some (a preferred very few)-not all. Or maybe we would because many of those that succeeded the most would always use their resources to create cartels, monopolies and buy political influence. Bribery and policy for vote getting- have no place in a purely capitalist system and their presence has...at least this is my guess-given capitalism a bad name.@
R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois
January 14, 2012

R. Tamara de Silva is an independent trader and securities lawyer

Footnotes:
1. Class War? What Americans Really Think About Economic Inequality, Lawrence Jacobs.
2. Of course economists that guess correctly and point out a plausible causal variable will appear brilliant but there again, only in hindsight. We cannot really know if we are in a crisis or in a period of dramatic change but it cannot hurt to be aware of the possibility of the latter.
3. The profit motive cannot be selectively excised from capitalism in favor of job retention, as many of Romney's critics suggest. It was not that long ago that the USSR boasted of full-employment but could never match the sheer volume of innovation produced by its arch rival.
4. http://uvc.org/why-private-capital-backed-companies/#jobGenerators
5. Id.
6. There is no purely capitalist system and may have never been-in the sense of a laissez-faire system because the State is always and in some manner involved.

Why MF Global's Last Days May Have Been Criminal

December 19, 2011
Why MF Global's Last Days May Have Been Criminal


By R. Tamara de Silva


December 19, 201
1

Last Thursday December 15, 2011 was MF Global Holdings Ltd.'s and MF Global Inc.'s Chief Executive Jon Corzine's third time to testify before Congress. He may not have faired all that well in light of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman Terrance Duffy's testimony on December 13, 2011, which seemed to contradict Corzine's previous testimony. Corzine adjusted his testimony on December 15, 2011 to account for the seeming contradiction. However, how well Corzine may have done to avoid perjury or any role in a possible fraud remains to be seen. A closer examination of Corzine's testimony and the events leading up to MF Global's bankruptcy on October 31, 2011 suggests problems. If there is any purpose to be achieved in having Corzine testify again, lawmakers should focus their questions towards the failed purchase of MF Global by Interactive Brokers and all customer agreements, including emails between MF Global and account holders leading up to the purported transfers of $175 million and $700 million in as yet missing customer segregated funds and the firm's use of a type of repurchase agreement.

Were the Transfers Legal?

In my first article on MF Global, I suggested that the $1.2 billion missing from customer segregated funds may have been incurred due to over-leveraged positions in European sovereign debt that coincidentally took a dramatic turn for the worse (as they did in fact as yield curves doubled rapidly in some issues) during the last weeks of October, and that funds were transferred to cover margin in customer funds held in European debt. In this scenario, as I suggested, nothing illegal would have occurred because CFTC Rule 1.25 had been amended to permit the investment of customer segregated funds in foreign sovereign debt.

Moreover, if the money was transferred legally and without any fraud, but simply lost in the market, there may not be any right to recover the money by MF Global's customers in bankruptcy proceedings. The use of customer segregated funds for margin payments on repo-to-maturity ("RTM") transactions are not illegal and hence unlikely, without anything else, to be recoverable in bankruptcy.

An alternate illegal scenario is that MF Global may have engaged in some late stage embezzlement of customer funds that were supposed to be segregated from MF Global's accounts and never commingled with any other funds. [1] One way this may have occurred is if the funds were transferred out of customer segregated funds for a legal purpose but without the customers' meaningful consent or, more likely, with an intent to deceive the customer.

MF Global was permitted to invest customer funds, and borrow customer funds so long as the dollar value of the funds taken from the customer segregated accounts remained the same-the accounts were kept intact. For example, if MF Global used customer funds by transferring a specific amount of money out of customer segregated accounts; it was required to simultaneously deposit something of equal value in these accounts to equal the dollar value of what had been taken out.

If MF Global transferred customer funds out of segregated accounts as a loan to MF Global to cover margin calls in existing positions in sovereign debt, (perfectly legal) [2], it may however, be fraud and intent to deceive on its part if MF Global knew it could not repay the money. This fraud may have occurred if MF Global knew (and it would be interesting to argue how it did not) that it sought to legally borrow from customer funds, knowing that it was de facto insolvent and could not replace the money.

In other words, an acceptable use of customer segregated funds for margin payments may not exist if at the time MF Global made the transfers, it was insolvent or in the midst of a crisis where insolvency was around the corner to be seen. Even if MF Global asked for and obtained the consent of its of customers, or consent was not required according to customer agreements, and it legally borrowed the money from customers by replacing it with other collateral (collateral such as commercial paper, as permitted by CFTC Rule 1.25), the transfers would still be illegal because MF Global would be deceiving its customers-knowing it was already insolvent. Even though the rules likely permitted the replacement of funds with other collateral (and the collateral was used) MF Global's actions are arguably illegal because they were deceiving their customers knowing they would not be able to make the customers whole. Meaningful deception like this would be fraud and embezzlement in which case, the funds could be clawed back in bankruptcy proceedings-Please note that I am speculating a bit in specific statements about bankruptcy proceedings and do not specialize in this area of law.

Changing testimony or selective recall?

On December 8, 2011, Corzine testified before the House Agriculture Committee that he had "no idea where the money is" and that "I know I had no intention to ever authorize the transfer of segregated moneys. I know what my intentions were."

On December 13, 2011, Corzine testified that, "I never directed anyone at MF Global to misuse customer funds. I never intended to. And, as far as I am concerned, I never gave instructions that anybody could misconstrue."

On December 13, 2011 Terrance Duffy testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee. In Mr. Duffy's testimony he said that the CME has been conducting their own ongoing investigation of MF Global and discovered on December 10, 2011, after questioning a former MF Global employee who knew about the transfer of $175 of customer funds towards MF Global's broker dealer operations, that Corzine knew all about the transfers and likely authorized them.

On Thursday November 15, 2011 Corzine repeated that he did not authorize any illegal transfers, pointing to his General Counsel and Treasurer as the people who would know about the transfers. However, he was able to recall the $175 million transfer enough to tell the Committee that Duffy likely meant a loan advance from customer segregated funds to MF Global's European operations. Remember that all his previous testimony was to the effect that he, "was totally stunned to learn customer money was missing...did not learn about it until October 30, 2011...etc"- in this context it seems a tad odd for him to suddenly develop a very specific recall about one event of October 28, 2011. Sadly, this was wholly lost on the Committee, which asked not one follow-up question.

In addition to Mr. Duffy's testimony that a MF Global back office employee said Corzine was aware of the transfers, the Committee alluded to evidence that the Chief Financial Officer of MF Global's North American operations (presumably Christine Serwinski) said that Corzine knew about the transfers. If so, there are at least two or more MF Global employees and officers who contradict Corzine's sworn Sgt. Shultz testimony.

Not being perfectly honest with FINRA

On December 8, 2011, Steve Luparello, the Vice Chairman of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA") also testified before the House Committee on Agriculture about MF Global's collapse. According to Mr. Luparello, MF Global was not completely candid with the Chicago Board of Options Exchange ("CBOE") and FINRA. In late September 2010, MF Global assured both regulatory bodies that it did not have any positions in European sovereign debt.[3] MF Global did in fact have positions in European sovereign debt during this time but because according to GAAP accounting rules, positions held in RTMs are treated as sales and not liabilities, MF Global did not violate the law in hiding its credit and risk exposure to RTM, which are liabilities in the real, non-accounting world. Technically, MF Global was able to get away with it, at least for a time.

A little background may be helpful and a story of another failed firm, Lehman Brothers that generously indulged in a cousin of RTMs, the Repo 105. The Repo 105 was utilized by Lehman Brothers, among other firms that did not survive the last financial crisis including Washington Mutual, Northern Rock and some that did like Citigroup.

This is how it worked and how a liability (a loan) can be transformed into a revenue-generating event (a sale)...if you are an investment bank that is. Lehman entered into repo transactions with offshore banks. Lehman would sell (though actually a loan) a bundle of toxic assets such as sub-prime mortgages and dubiously collateralized debt obligations to the bank. This transaction is characterized on the books of Lehman as a sale. Lehman agrees to buy back or repurchase (hence the term 'repo') the toxic assets at a later date (maturity). In this way, Lehman moves loans and bad assets off its balance sheets towards the end of each financial quarter-removing liabilities dramatically improves a balance sheet- as if they do not exist. Then Lehman reports the sale as a revenue-generating event, in effect moving by way of example, $39 billion off its balance sheet in what is a liability, and reporting it as a sale of $39 billion. It is fraudulent twice over in that Lehman does not disclose on its financials that it has an obligation (a debt to buy back) to pay back the amount loan and it reports the loan as revenue.

In effect, this is what MF Global did with FINRA and CBOE. However, the regulators caught MF Global's exposure to European sovereign debt and told MF Global to keep substantially more money in reserves because of what FINRA identified in May 2011 as a $7.6 billion risk exposure. MF Global appealed to the SEC and because of the appeal process, it was only in August that FINRA and the CBOE were successful in getting MF Global to put up more money for its European debt exposure and utilization of RTMs.

An accounting error

Also on December 15, 2011, the oversight panel of the House Financial Services Committee released a CME Group document the CME had given to the government containing a detailed log of its dealings with MF Global between October 24, 2011 and October 31, 2011. According to this document, Christine Serwinski, the Chief Financial Officer for North America at MF Global, and its Assistant Treasurer, Edith O'Brien, told a Mike Procajlo, an exchange auditor at 1:00 a.m. on Oct. 31, 2011 that the customer money was transferred on Oct. 27 and Oct. 28 and possibly Oct. 26, 2011. "About $700 million was moved to the broker-dealer side of the business to meet liquidity issues in a series of transactions on Thursday, Friday and possibly Wednesday," Serwinski told Procajlo about eight hours before the firm filed for the eighth-largest bankruptcy in United States history.

Barely three days prior, on October 28, 2011, MF Global had submitted a statement to the CME showing that it had $200,178,912 in excess cash in its customer segregated funds as of the close of October 27, 2011.

On October 30, 2011, an official from the CFTC informed Procajlo that a draft statement of the value of MF Global's customer segregated funds, showed a deficit in customer segregated funds for the day ending October 28, 2011. MF Global's Assistant Controller, Mike Bolan and its General Counsel, Laurie Ferber said they believe the customer-funds deficit is "an accounting error." Ms. Ferber had told the CME on October 25, 2011 that rumors about problems stemming from MG Global's European debt trading were not accurate.

On December 15, 2011 Mr. Duffy told the House Committee that this so called accounting error was "a telling sign that regulators were being kept in the dark" about MF Global's customer accounts. What was Corzine doing during all of this?

Acquisition by Interactive Brokers

While the exchange was trying to get to the bottom of the accounting error, whose magnitude would not be revealed until the evening of October 30, 2011 as being $900 million, Corzine and other MF Global officials were trying to close a deal to sell MF Global to Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. On that same day, October 30, 2011, MF Global issued a press release at 6:00 p.m. announcing that it had reached a deal with Interactive Brokers.

Corzine as CEO of MF Global negotiated the potential sale of his firm to Interactive Brokers. The first question involved in any sale of a going concern involves the determination of an acquisition price. Corzine would have had to know what the assets and liabilities of MF Global were (the balance sheets) to even begin to negotiate a price. The deal was happening at the exact same time of the transfers.

It is beyond the bounds of credibility to argue that MF Global did not have regular if not daily accounting of cash balance sheets and that Corzine did not see them. If Corzine knew what the company was worth, during the very days in which at least $900 million in customer segregated funds was lost, he must have at a minimum known about the company's impending insolvency. How then could he not have known of the transfers?

In addition, as a matter of course in the futures industry, MF Global likely had to report the total daily amounts carried in segregated funds to the CME-it certainly had to do so from October 24, 2011 onwards. This computation is performed as a matter of course every single day at every futures broker.

Corzine's testimony before Congress would have us believe that hundreds of millions of dollars were moved around without the knowledge or approval of the MF Global's CEO and CFO all while the balance sheets were being scrutinized for an acquisition by Interactive Brokers, which Corzine spear-headed.

Corzine has sworn under oath that he did not know anything about the missing money until October 30, 2011. This is simply not possible.

Suggestions for House and Senate Committees

Further education about the industry is in order. Both the House and Senate soft-peddled the issues, and perhaps unintentionally avoided important questions and asked almost no meaningful follow-up questions, allowing Corzine to stretch the bounds of credibility in evasiveness. Further questioning should focus, among other things, on the representations made by MF Global to Interactive Brokers on October 24, 2011-October 30, 2011.@
R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois
December 19, 2011

R. Tamara de Silva is a securities lawyer and independent trader

Footnotes:
1. http://www.timelyobjections.com/john-corzine/
2. Remember CFTC Rule 1.25 which had been amended to allow the investment of customer segregated funds in foreign sovereign debt, was amended back after the fall of MF Global to disallow the investment of customer segregated funds in foreign sovereign debt.
3. http://www.finra.org/Newsroom/Speeches/Luparello/P125233

Was Corzine's Testimony About MF Global Truthful?

December 13, 2011

Was Corzine's Testimony About MF Global Truthful?

By R. Tamara de Silva

December 13, 2011


Testimony before Congress today revealed that MF Global had illegally transferred $175 million out of customer segregated funds towards its European broker-dealer operations before it went into bankruptcy proceedings and very much under Jon Corzine's stewardship. On December 8, 2011 and again today before Congress, Corzine testified under oath that he was not aware of any illegal transfer. Today's testimony of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman, Terrance A. Duffy suggests that Corzine did know about the transfer.

My last article on MF Global stated that $1.2 billion in losses may have been incurred due to over-leveraged positions in European sovereign debt that coincidentally took a dramatic turn for the worse (they did in fact) during the last weeks of October, or alternatively, that MF Global had engaged in some late stage embezzlement of customer funds that are supposed to be segregated from MF Global's accounts and never commingled with any other funds.[1]

It now appears that Jon Corzine may be the best example of the why it makes sense to invoke the Fifth Amendment if you are not inclined to be anything other than completely honest because you simply will not get away with anything other than complete honesty under oath. Corzine testified before the House Agriculture Committee December 8, 2011 and today before the Senate Agriculture Committee. Today, according to the testimony of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group ("CME"), Chairman Terrance A. Duffy, Corzine may have lied.

In Corzine's December 8th testimony, he essentially hems and haws and states that he cannot recall much of anything, things were chaotic during the last days of MF Global, he was completely lacking in mens rea, would not have authorized any transfer of customer money out of segregated funds, does not have all the records after he resigned and certainly did not intentionally do anything wrong. Nothing other than attempting to mislead Congress and lying.

On December 13, 2011, Corzine testifies that, "I never directed anyone at MF Global to misuse customer funds. I never intended to. And, as far as I am concerned, I never gave instructions that anybody could misconstrue."

Also on December 13, 2011 Terrance Duffy, Jill Sommers, Commissioner of the CFTC and James Giddens, MF Global's bankruptcy trustee also testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee.

In Mr. Duffy's testimony he says that the CME has been conducting their own ongoing investigation of MF Global and discovered on December 10, 2011, after questioning a former MF Global employee who knew about the transfer of $175 of customer funds towards MF Global's broker dealer operations (I am speculating that this was likely done to meet margin requirements on European debt bets that the firm thought would bounce back in time before anyone was the wiser) that Corzine knew all about the transfers. If Corzine knew about the transfer of $175 million, his testimony to the House Committee of December 8, 2011 wherein he stated that he knew nothing about it was untruthful. Corzine may well have already perjured himself.

Remember that on October 26, 2011, the CME had performed a spot audit on MF Global. On October 24, 2011, the CME initiated a heightened scrutiny of the segregated customer fund reporting of MF Global as a result of MF Global's market risk. Beginning on October 24, 2011, the CME's daily audits verified that customer funds were on deposit at the bank(s) where MF Global represented that they were and in the amount that they were supposed to be.

On October 26, 2011, the CFTC also went into MF Global to make sure that what MF Global reported to be holding in customer segregated funds matched bank balances. The CFTC's spot audit showed that no money was missing.

On October 25, 2011 MF Global reported a substantial quarterly loss due to having leverage of 40:1 on its exposure to European sovereign debt. Predictably, MF Global's stock collapsed and it its bonds began to trade at distressed levels. Corzine utilized all MF Global's credit lines and tried to secure a sale of the firm to Interactive Brokers. On October 26 or October 27, 2011 MF Global provided reports to the CME and CFTC that it had a $200 million surplus in customer accounts. In reality on October 27, 2011, it was covering up a $200 million deficit in customer funds.

Five days later on October 31, 2011, MF Global filed for bankruptcy. But MF Global had already lied to both the CME and CFTC and violated CFTC rules and committed fraud and embezzlement.

On the morning of November 2, 2011, the CME announced that MF Global may have transferred money "
in a manner that may have been designed to avoid detection insofar as MF Global
 did not disclose or report such transfers to the CFTC or CME until early morning on Monday, October 31, 2011." [2]

The first hint of missing customer funds came out in press report on October 31, 2011 when Interactive Brokers announced they are walking away from a purchase of MF Global due to accounting discrepancies. At first MF Global denied anything of the sort, only to admit on November 1, 2011 that there were shortfalls in customer accounts. [3]

There are in excess of $158 billion in customer-segregated funds in the United States. The futures markets unlike the securities markets have existed without any meaningful problem or shortfall in domestic customer segregated funds and without needing the existence of any protection like SIPC until October 31, 2011. It is inarguable that the futures markets have been the most crisis-free well functioning markets in the world and remain so. It is unfortunate that because of Jon Corzine these markets may now be portrayed as somehow unsafe for the investment of public funds.

The answer to Corzine is not more regulation but as I have written before, a simple amendment of CFTC Rule 1.25 to prohibit the investment of customer segregated funds in foreign sovereign debt-this amendment has already occurred. It was Corzine himself who lobbied for the change in Rule 1.25 to allow for customer-segregated funds to be held in foreign debt instruments.

Regulation can never rule out the rogue actor or sociopath and must not try because there really are not that many around-Corzine being a case in point. What is least needed is a reactionary and wholesale change in the regulation of the futures markets.@

R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois
December 13, 2011

R. Tamara de Silva is a securities lawyer and independent trader

Footnotes:
1. http://www.timelyobjections.com/john-corzine/
2. http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=3202&pagetemplate=article
3. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577012061970129588.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Blagojevich Sentenced to 14 Years

December 7, 2011
Blagojevich Sentenced to 14 Years

By R. Tamara de Silva

December 7, 2011

Former Illinois Governor, Rod Blagojevich was sentenced to 14 years today for trying to sell President Obama's vacant Senate seat or as the indictment stated, "efforts to illegally obtain campaign contributions in exchange for official action." Is it wrong to try to sell a Senate seat for personal gain? Of course it is. What the jury considered Blagojevich to have done was essentially commit attempted graft, or the act of attempting to profit or profiting from a political office for personal gain. However, getting excited about Blagojevich's conviction is a bit naïve. Despite all the time, publicity and millions of dollars spent on this single prosecution, in Illinois today there is still no conflict of interest rule regime in place, to prevent the trading of government office and services for personal gain-not even now. Blagojevich's conviction is bread and circuses that will for a time appease the gullible masses and unquestioning press. Bloodletting occurred and an unpopular and loudmouth politician with unforgivable hair succumbed to the lions as the crowds cheered.

What was punished today will be repeated tomorrow and all tomorrows thereafter, but without fanfare and long after the Blagojevich jokes have subsided because Illinois law, insofar that it does not meaningfully outlaw conflicts of interest by those in elected office to prevent self-dealing and graft, seems to condone it. Graft is the currency of Illinois politics and government, especially in Cook County. It occurs every day and on every floor of Chicago's City Hall. In Illinois, the act of differentiating between graft and what passes for legal local government operation in so many local government agencies is the pass on a razor's edge or an exercise in sophistry.

Graft, Horse-Trading, Earmarks and Lobbyists

Ideally, Blagojevich's case should be used to reexamine the role of graft and quid pro quo in politics-that is if the very premise of my suggestion is not itself horridly naïve in that horse trading, is a close cousin of graft and arises out of a shared principle-quid pro quo. Is graft very much different from efforts to legally obtain campaign contributions in exchange for official action? The rationale for what is legal and what is illegal in quid pro quo deals in politics ought to have no bearing on who the party is that is doing the asking and getting.

Arguably, the hundreds of billions of dollars spent on earmarks for pet projects by legislators for their projects back home are manifestations of quid pro quo thinly disguised under the veil of constituent democracy in action. When Congress or the White House does it, it cannot be called, "democracy," "lobbying" or "free speech," and criminal extortion or bribery if done by someone else...or can it?

Legislation creates industry, first by lobbyists and then many cottage industries to explain the legislation and its impact and meaning. The other effect of legislation other than the growth of government itself is earmarks--earmarks are simply quid pro quo.

In the case of congressional earmarks and sweetheart Washington deals, or just garden variety official action for campaign contributions, it seems at times that the line between illegal pay for play in politics and official quid pro quo is paper-thin.

For example, by the admission of the White House on May 28, 2010, White House Chief of Staff and current Chicago Mayor, Rahm Emanuel apparently asked former President Bill Clinton to ask Rep. Joe Sestak to drop a Democratic Pennsylvania Senate bid against Sen. Arlen Specter, in return offering unpaid advisory positions. What if the offer was simply phrased as, "I'll trade you Secretary of the Navy for you not to run against Spectre?" Can this be legal, however it was phrased? Or is this not quintessentially quid pro quo?

The dismissal of all charges against former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) demonstrates how thorny public corruption cases can be probably because we are entering the grayest of modern areas in present day politics. What is politics without an examination of the almost direct relationship between earmarks and campaign contributions-think about this-because politics cannot exist without both, at every level? Legislation creates industry, first by lobbyists and then many cottage industries to explain the legislation and its impact and meaning. The other effect of legislation other than the growth of government itself is earmarks--earmarks are quid pro quo.

It is in this gray area that congressional earmarking thrives. Like in the markets increased transparency might have an impact on some of the most corruptive elements of the practice, but it is still a gamble and members of Congress must think that there is a better than even chance that it will pay off for years; they might escape detection and prosecution.

Arguably the only good earmark is a dead earmark. But by this logic, many laws would never get passed and politics would grind to a halt at the state and federal level. Using earmarks to buy campaign contributions, as pay offs to political cronies, to employ your relatives or your former staff members (all practices which are commonly found in earmarking) constitutes quid pro quo.

Ear-marks, which are legally given often times for campaign contributions are considered to be the legal part of quid pro quo in our political system. What is politics without an examination of the almost direct relationship between earmarks and campaign contributions? Think about this-because politics cannot exist without both, at every level. Lobbyists give campaign contributions for earmarks in legislation. Harry Reid received almost $1,000,000 in 2010 election cycle out of $4,447,000 spent by the Vegas casinos to keep online gambling illegal. Harry Reid lobbies to keep online gambling illegal and is the casinos' staunchest advocate on the issue. If this is not quid pro quo, what is it?

Pay to Play, the Illinois Way

Getting back to graft in Illinois, there are about a handful of politicians that divide the assets of the state and local governments like a Christmas pie and they do so by institutionalizing graft. Governor Blagojevich, though accused of being insufferably tacky at times, was in reality and despite his attraction to the spot light and its fascination of him, somewhat of a bit player. Someone once wrote that Illinois is different from every other state in that it was the one absolutely corrupt state in the Union. No one with anything but a cursory understanding of Illinois politics (a certain prominent columnist comes to mind) would dispute this.

To those that are inclined to think that Blagojevich's conviction will send a lesson to other Illinois politicians, you need read no further. To those more critically inclined, consider a few anecdotes that follow (there are so many others but their inclusion would be outside the scope of a blog) in light of mathematical set theory and you will see that while Blagojevich intersected with the lords of Cook County, he never really controlled the throne-not even close.


The largest real estate tax firms that practice at the Cook County Board of Review, the agency that adjudicates property tax appeals in Cook County contribute to their Commissioners. Law firms and lawyers are paid a percentage of the tax savings they achieve for their clients in front of this tax appeal board-they achieve savings of hundreds of millions of dollars every year. The heads of many of these law firms are also among the most powerful politicians and legislators in Illinois. Of course, these lawyers and law firms (coincidentally) have contributed millions of dollars to the campaign war-chests of the Commissioners and their staff at the tax appeal boards.

It would be entirely cynical and not for me to suggest that anything approximating graft were to occur at these agencies, though in the spirit of disclosure I do represent Cook County residents in three separate Federal lawsuits that allege that an institutionalization of pay to play (graft) occurs.

Or consider that almost half of the over 400 current sitting state judges in Cook County were slated and ultimately elected due to backing by the Judicial Slating Committee of the Cook County Democratic Party. The slating process is opaque and political-mired in the political traditions and conflicts of interest of old time Chicago politics. While I could be mistaken, I do not believe there are any Republican judges at the circuit level, in effect one person is judge-maker or de facto head of the Judicial Branch. The requirement of no conflicts of interests on the part of the slate maker does not exist.

After Governor Blagojevich was caught trying to peddle President Obama's open Senate seat, the President came into town on October 2010 to raise campaign funds for Governor Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias, who was running for Obama's open Senate seat.

Coincidentally and because it is a small world as it were, Alexi Giannoulais's father had contributed $10,000 to Blagojevich. In 2003, Blagojevich's then fundraiser Tony Rezko (who has since been convicted of fraud and bribery) sponsored Demetris Giannoulias (Alexi's brother) for an appointment with the Illinois Finance Authority. Governor Blagojevich went on to appoint Demetris Giannoulias to the Illinois Finance Authority. On June 29, 2005, Alexis Giannoulias contributes $10,000 to Friends of Blagojevich. Coincidentally, on September 1, 2005, Rod Blagojevich reappointed Demetris Giannoulias to the Illinois Finance Authority Board.

From 2006-2008, Giannoulias, had worked for President Obama's campaign and contributed to it. Giannoulias is a fixture at the East Bank Club where he played basketball regularly with then Senator Obama. President Obama endorsed Giannoulias for State Treasurer in 2006. When Giannoulias ran for State Treasurer, he promised to revitalize the State's 529 college savings plan called Bright Start. Under his watch the college savings plan lost nearly $150 million before $77 million was recouped by a settlement.

By way of some background, Giannoulias was also the senior loan officer at his family's Broadway Bank. During his tenor there the Bank loaned a convicted mobster and pimp, Michael "Jaws" Durango $15.4 million. Broadway Bank also loaned Tony Rezko $23 million.

In August 2011, Governor Pat Quinn appointed Alexi Giannoulias to serve as chairman of the Illinois Community College Board.

Blagojevich intersected with many of the most powerful politicians in Illinois but somehow lacked their finesse because they remain in office while he is to begin serving his prison sentence on February 6, 2012.

If United States District Judge James Zagel is correct in remarking during sentencing that Blagojevich deserves his 14 year sentence because, "When it is the governor who goes bad, the fabric of Illinois is torn and disfigured and not easily repaired...The harm is the erosion of public trust in government," then the public must demand this trust be restored by taking the trouble to notice what actually happens in Illinois government every single day. If a message is intended to be sent to other politicians, it will not be delivered unless meaningful conflict of interest laws are instituted in Illinois. Otherwise, Blagojevich will like the three governors before him, be considered a one-off event.@
R Tamara de Silva

December 7, 2011

*By way of disclosure, I used to work with Sam E. Adam and Sam F. Adam, the same lawyers that represented Governor Blagojevich during his first trial when he was only convicted of one charge, obstruction of justice and walked on 23 remaining counts as a result of a hung jury. While I did not work on the Blagojevich case, Sam F. Adam is my mentor in the criminal law and I consider to him the best living criminal defense lawyer.

Judge Rakoff Rejects SEC Settlement Agreement with Citigroup

November 29, 2011
Judge Rakoff Rejects SEC Settlement Agreement with Citigroup

By R. Tamara de Silva

November 29, 2011


This is the legal version of an NFL upset alert. On November 28, 2011, United States District Judge Jed S. Rakoff rejected what would have been the sixth civil settlement agreement between Citigroup Global Markets Inc. ("Citigroup") and the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") since 2003. The SEC filed a complaint against Citigroup in October because Citigroup had peddled $1 billion in mortgage-bonds through a vehicle called Class V Funding III, without disclosing it was betting against $500 million of those assets-in essence offering something to its customers and not disclosing that it would be betting against them.

Contrary to press reports of the decision, Judge Rakoff is not being an activist judge or legislating from the bench when by refusing to uphold the $285 million settlement agreement. This Judge was upholding (and not without an insignificant amount of courage), the law. Perhaps even more importantly, his decision is a victory for the separation of powers doctrine.

Standard of Review

Civil settlements between the SEC and other parties, or what are alternatively called, consent decrees, are essentially permanent injunctions in that they forbid the party that is accused of violating some part of the securities laws from ever doing so again-often even attaching various conditions and stipulations meant to be honored for all time. The SEC in its filings prior to its last filing (a memorandum in support of a consent order), addressed the legal standard of review required for a court to grant a consent order, except this time when they asked the Court to finally grant the order, they did not fully address the standard of review.

By way of some background, usually, it is the function of the Legislature to make laws that proscribe conduct-not the Judiciary. It is an extraordinary thing to ask a court of law to permanently rule that someone is forever barred from doing something-injunctive relief is an extraordinary remedy because it throws the full weight of the court into what is the de facto making of a law-a judicial order. Breach of a Federal injunction can have criminal consequences-a Federal injunction is no common thing.[1]

The United States Supreme Court established in numerous decisions that there is a four part test courts must use in granting injunctions. Before granting an injunction, a court must determine that the granting of the injunction is at once: 1) fair; 2) reasonable; 3) adequate, and 4) in the public interest (emphasis added). Ebay Inc. v. MercExchange, 547 U.S. 388, 391

The SEC remarkably pled that they need not address the "public's interest," part of the standard of review and that even if they did, they alone could decide that something is in the "public interest." The SEC's argument if followed would abrogate a power given to the court and yet ask the court to stamp its imprimatur and issue an order-thereby making the SEC the judge, jury and executioner.

The Justice Department is part of the Executive Branch and were the Judiciary merely to rubber stamp all settlements entered into between the departments of the Executive Branch and private parties, turning them into judicial orders on the say so of the Executive Branch or other government agencies and departments, the separation of powers would very meaningfully cease to exist. The courts would become in every sense the handmaidens of the Executive and other government agencies, or as in this case, the SEC.

Purely private parties can settle a case without ever agreeing on the facts, for all that is required is that a Plaintiff dismiss his complaint. But when a public agency asks a court to become its partner in enforcement by imposing wide-ranging injunctive remedies on a defendant, enforced by the formidable judicial power of contempt, the court, and the public, need some knowledge of what the underlying facts are: for otherwise, the court becomes a mere handmaiden to a settlement privately negotiated on the basis of unknown facts, while the public is deprived of ever knowing the truth in a matter of obvious public importanc
e. pp. 8-9


What Judge Rakoff did in denying the SEC's request for a consent order was have the courage to point out to the SEC that it cannot alone, ignoring case law, determine the standard of review for the judicial approval of the civil settlement between itself and anyone else.

Settlement agreements between the Justice Department and SEC and private citizens are not like settlement agreements between two private parties in a civil matter or easement dispute. More often than not, the SEC presents an individual or concern with a choice between settling a complaint (not a conviction-we are at the stage of a mere accusation) for a fine or facing criminal prosecution against the full force of the United States Department of Justice and every means at its disposable (unlimited). This is Hobson's choice itself. Somewhat analogous to my accosting a stranger and offering the following choice, "I will beat you to a pulp and it will cost every penny you have to recover medically and years of care or, you may pay me $100,000 and we will pretend this never happened." Of course if it were proven that I did this, I would be unceremoniously tossed in a room not of my choosing for some duration and accused of extortion...but I am not the government. Neither are private civil settlements comparable to civil settlements with the SEC or Justice Department.

Judge Rakoff's Ruling

Judge Rakoff also went on to say in his memorandum and opinion that he would no longer approve of SEC settlement agreements that involved the defendants not providing any admissions of wrong-doing, "because the court has not been provided with any proven or admitted facts upon which to exercise even a modest degree of independent judgment".

In other words, the courts cannot determine what is fair or adequate about a consent agreement between a government agency and private party without some evidentiary basis or knowledge of the facts.

An application of judicial power that does not rest on facts is worse than mindless, it is inherently dangerous. The injunctive power of the judiciary is not a free- roving remedy to be invoked at the whim of a regulatory agency, even with the consent of the regulated. If its deployment does not rest on facts-cold, hard solid facts, established either by admission or by trials-it serves no lawful or moral purpose and is simply an engine of oppression.

Finally, in any case like this that touches on the transparency of financial markets whose gyrations have so depressed our economy and debilitated our lives, there is an overriding public interest in knowing the truth. In much of the world, propaganda reigns, and the truth is confined to secretive, fearful whispers. Even in our nation, apologists for suppressing or obscuring the truth may always be found. But the S.E.C., of all agencies, has a duty, inherent in its statutory mission, to see that the truth emerges; and if it fails to do so, this Court must not, in the name of deference or convenience, grant judicial enforcement to the agency's contrivances

.pp 14-15.


Citigroup is as the Court points out, a bit of a recidivist. Citigroup has signed many settlement agreements with the SEC without admitting any wrongdoing. It is almost a get out of jail for free card for a fee. Surely there is a purpose to these agreements than merely generating revenue for the SEC by making Citigroup part with pin money? Are these settlement agreements, as the Court and Bloomberg's Jonathan Weil have asked, merely considered the "cost of doing business" or some part of a transaction tax on offending financial titans?[2]

If it were in the public's interest to prevent fraud upon the market, then fines should be significant enough to actually deter illegal conduct. If not, prosecutions should be endured and convictions gotten. The historic role of punishment in the criminal justice system has not been just punishment, but deterrence. In the case of the settlement agreement at hand, the actual fine was $95 million with the suggestion that Citigroup pay up to $285 million-this is pin money to a bank with revenue in the billions of dollars-the "cost of doing business" will not deter anyone, nor is its pursuit an enormously wise use of taxpayer funds-certainly not according to a cost benefit analysis. @

R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois
November 29, 2011

R. Tamara de Silva is a securities lawyer and independent trader

Any questions about this article should be directed to tamara@desilvalawoffices.com
Footnotes:
1. The power of the Federal court to protect and enforce its judgments is unquestioned. United States v. New York Telephone Co., 434 U.S. 159, 172-73(1977).
2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/citigroup-finds-obeying-the-law-is-too-darn-hard-jonathan-weil.html

MF Global's Missing Customer Funds and Its Implications on the Futures Industry

November 28, 2011
MF Global's Missing Customer Funds and Its Implications on the Futures Industry

By R. Tamara de Silva

November 28, 2011


Abstract: The collapse of MF Global is an unfortunate and watershed event for the futures industry. The regulated futures markets, long a stepchild of the larger financial markets, have been the most liquid, transparent and crisis free markets in the world. They have been remarkably free from any systemic financial crisis. . .with the exception of a certain salad oil scandal (almost 50 years ago) and until now with MF Global. With former Goldman Sach's CEO Jon Corzine's takeover and bankruptcy of what had been one of the largest and oldest commodity trading firms in the world, the crisis-free reputation of the futures industry is sullied. At the crux of MF Global's fall is CFTC Rule 1.25 which requires that, futures commission merchants ("FCMs"), like MF Global, are allowed to invest and collect interest on customer funds, in excess of customer funds, used as margin for customer trades. Rule 1.25 was amended in 2004 to allow FCMs to invest in sovereign debt (among five other investment vehicles) so long as these vehicles maintained the highest credit ratings by the three credit ratings agencies. If MF Global went into customer segregated funds, which are supposed to separated away from the firm's assets, to meet the FCM's own margin calls, then Corzine and as yet unknown agents will face criminal charges. If however, customer funds were invested in foreign sovereign debt, as firms are allowed to do under CFTC Rule 1.25 and these investments lost over $1.2 billion in value, then there is no criminal liability, only perhaps civil liability. The accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, may face civil liability. A cursory look at all other similar crises from Refco and Griffin Trading (in the futures industry) to Lehman Brothers and rogue trading at UBS, demonstrates that MF Global is unique-this may be the first time in history that customer segregated funds were not properly segregated by an FCM. In any event, $1.2 billion in customer funds would not have been lost had CFTC Rule 1.25 not have been amended in 2004.[1] MF Global's demise has broader implications, other than legal culpability for accounting firms, the effectiveness of self-regulatory organizations and prospective regulation of the futures industry. Lastly, in order to ensure that the futures markets do not have another MF Global, CFTC Rule 1.25 must be amended back to reverse its amendment in 2000 and 2005.

Background

James Man started a sugar trading business in 1783, that became Man Financial and ultimately, the publicly traded MF Global, some 230 years later. In March 2010, a former Goldman Sachs CEO, Jon Corzine became CEO of MF Global joking with not some insignificant degree of obviously unjustified hubris that "I hadn't heard of this company a week ago." Would that he had remained in ignorance.

It was Corzine's stated goal to transform MF Global from a commodity broker into an investment bank with a large proprietary trading operation similar to the one Corzine ran at Goldman in the 1990s. The luster of Corzine's Goldman pedigree was not lost on the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) as they granted Corzine a waiver, from having to have a license to run MF Global. By way of some background, every person in the futures industry has a license, especially everyone interacting with clients.

On October 26, 2011, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ("CME") performed a spot audit on MF Global. This audit merely verified that customer funds were on deposit at the bank(s) where MF Global represented that they were and in the amount that they were supposed to be. The CME had performed a full audit in January 2011. On October 25, 2011 MF Global reported a substantial quarterly loss due to having leverage of 40:1 on its exposure to European sovereign debt. Predictably, MF Global's stock collapsed and it its bonds began to trade at distressed levels.[2] Corzine utilized all MF Global's credit lines and tried to secure a sale of the firm to Interactive Brokers. Five days later on October 31, 2011, MF Global filed for bankruptcy. There is yet no reason to think that any customer funds, which are supposed to be safeguarded from a futures brokerage going bankrupt by virtue of their being completely segregated, would be in jeopardy.

However, on November 2, 2011, the CME announced that MF Global may have transferred money "
in a manner that may have been designed to avoid detection insofar as MF Global
 did not disclose or report such transfers to the CFTC or CME until early morning on Monday, October 31, 2011." [3]

The first hint of missing customer funds was released on October 31, 2011 when Interactive Brokers announced they are walking away from a purchase of MF Global due to accounting discrepancies. At first MF Global denied anything of the sort, only to admit on November 1, 2011 that there were shortfalls in customer accounts.[4]

Almost one month later, no one can account for where the money has gone. The CME verified that customer money was accounted for on October 26, 2011. It looks as if the money was moved out of customer segregated accounts in the amount of what is now considered to be well over a $1.2 billion shortfall, or the money was lost in trading losses and positions in...you guessed it, sovereign debt. It is possible that legally segregated customer funds could have been lost, in a titanic liquidity squeeze. If this is the case, then no violation of the law that requires customer funds to be segregated occurred.

The illegal scenario is if customer segregated funds were commingled with MF Global's funds. If MF Global went into what are supposed to legally segregated customer funds, that must be completely separated and never used by MF Global either for its own purposes or that of other customers, then fraud and embezzlement would have occurred. Almost one month afterwards, no one outside of MF Global knows which scenario occurred.

Applicable Rules

The key difference between FCMs and securities brokerages is that FCMs, unlike securities brokers, are required by law to keep their customer funds segregated from the FCM's own funds. It is in this way that FCMs have been able, with comparatively few exceptions, to ensure that customer deposits are completely protected from all losses an FCM may incur due to its own proprietary trading. Before MF Global, the requirement that FCMs segregate customer funds completely from their own funds largely prevented FCM customers from losing money due to an FCM bankruptcy.[5]

Having customer segregated funds completely separated and safe from an FCM's own funds and operations meant that protections like SIPC were not needed in the futures world as they are in securities. SIPC on the other hand restores funds to customers with assets in securities brokerage firms.[6] The National Futures Association (NFA) and the CFTC require FCMs to report the amount they carry in customer segregated funds to the clearing house of the FCM's designated self-regulatory organization (DSRO)-in MF Global's case, the CME.

In the case of MF Global, five principal rules applied. CFTC Rule 1.20, 1.23, 1.25, 1.32, 30.7 and Section 4d(a)(2) of the Commodity Exchange Act ("CEA").

CFTC Rule 1.20 holds that customer funds are to be segregated and separately accounted for.

(a) All customer funds shall be separately accounted for and segregated as belonging to commodity or option customers. Such customer funds when deposited with any bank, trust company, clearing organization or another futures commission merchant shall be deposited under an account name which clearly identifies them as such and shows that they are segregated as required by the Act and this part. Each registrant shall obtain and retain in its files for the period provided in §1.31 a written acknowledgment from such bank, trust company, clearing organization, or futures commission merchant, that it was informed that the customer funds deposited therein are those of commodity or option customers and are being held in accordance with the provisions of the Act and this part: Provided, however, that an acknowledgment need not be obtained from a clearing organization that has adopted and submitted to the Commission rules that provide for the segregation as customer funds, in accordance with all relevant provisions of the Act and the rules and orders promulgated thereunder, of all funds held on behalf of customers. Under no circumstances shall any portion of customer funds be obligated to a clearing organization, any member of a contract market, a futures commission merchant, or any depository except to purchase, margin, guarantee, secure, transfer, adjust or settle trades, contracts or commodity option transactions of commodity or option customers. No person, including any clearing organization or any depository, that has received customer funds for deposit in a segregated account, as provided in this section, may hold, dispose of, or use any such funds as belonging to any person other than the option or commodity customers of the futures commission merchant which deposited such funds.
(b) All customer funds received by a clearing organization from a member of the clearing organization to purchase, margin, guarantee, secure or settle the trades, contracts or commodity options of the clearing member's commodity or option customers and all money accruing to such commodity or option customers as the result of trades, contracts or commodity options so carried shall be separately accounted for and segregated as belonging to such commodity or option customers, and a clearing organization shall not hold, use or dispose of such customer funds except as belonging to such commodity or option customers. Such customer funds when deposited in a bank or trust company shall be deposited under an account name which clearly shows that they are the customer funds of the commodity or option customers of clearing members, segregated as required by the Act and these regulations. The clearing organization shall obtain and retain in its files for the period provided by §1.31 an acknowledgment from such bank or trust company that it was informed that the customer funds deposited therein are those of commodity or option customers of its clearing members and are being held in accordance with the provisions of the Act and these regulations.
(c) Each futures commission merchant shall treat and deal with the customer funds of a commodity customer or of an option customer as belonging to such commodity or option customer. All customer funds shall be separately accounted for, and shall not be commingled with the money, securities or property of a futures commission merchant or of any other person, or be used to secure or guarantee the trades, contracts or commodity options, or to secure or extend the credit, of any person other than the one for whom the same are held: Provided, however, That customer funds treated as belonging to the commodity or option customers of a futures commission merchant may for convenience be commingled and deposited in the same account or accounts with any bank or trust company, with another person registered as a futures commission merchant, or with a clearing organization, and that such share thereof as in the normal course of business is necessary to purchase, margin, guarantee, secure, transfer, adjust, or settle the trades, contracts or commodity options of such commodity or option customers or resulting market positions, with the clearing organization or with any other person registered as a futures commission merchant, may be withdrawn and applied to such purposes, including the payment of premiums to option grantors, commissions, brokerage, interest, taxes, storage and other fees and charges, lawfully accruing in connection with such trades, contracts or commodity options: Provided, further, That customer funds may be invested in instruments described in §1.25.
[7]


Section 4d(a)(2) of the Commodity Exchange Act also states that customer funds must not be commingled with funds of the FCM nor ever be used by an FCM for any purpose such as margining other customer accounts or that of the FCM itself.

Section 4d(a)(2) of the CEA and related Commission regulations require that, among other things, all funds deposited with an FCM to purchase, margin, guarantee, or secure futures or commodity options transactions and all accruals thereon, be accounted for separately by the FCM and deposited under an account name that clearly identifies
them as such, not be commingled with the FCM's own funds, and be held for the benefit of customers.\4\ The segregation requirements are intended to prevent an FCM from using customer property to margin the trades of other customers or of the FCM itself. Further, the Division has interpreted the segregation requirements to preclude any
impediments or restrictions on the FCM's ability to obtain the immediate access to customer funds. The immediate and unfettered access requirement avoids potential delay or interruption in securing required margin payments that, in times of significant market disruption or otherwise, could magnify the impact of such market disruption and impair the liquidity of other FCMs and clearinghouses.
[8]

The stage was set for MF Global on February 3, 2005, when the CFTC published proposed amendments to its Rule 1.25, which governed what types of investments an FCM may make of customer segregated funds. Before 2000, FCMs and designated clearing organizations ("DCOs") were only permitted to invest in United States debt (including municipal and state debt).

CFTC Rule 1.23 allows FCMs and DCOs to collect interest in the customer-segregated funds they hold.[9]

The provision in section 4d(a)(2) of the Act and the provision in §1.20(c), which prohibit the commingling of customer funds with the funds of a futures commission merchant, shall not be construed to prevent a futures commission merchant from having a residual financial interest in the customer funds, segregated as required by the Act and the rules in this part and set apart for the benefit of commodity or option customers; nor shall such provisions be construed to prevent a futures commission merchant from adding to such segregated customer funds such amount or amounts of money, from its own funds or unencumbered securities from its own inventory, of the type set forth in §1.25, as it may deem necessary to ensure any and all commodity or option customers' accounts from becoming undersegregated at any time. The books and records of a futures commission merchant shall at all times accurately reflect its interest in the segregated funds. A futures commission merchant may draw upon such segregated funds to its own order, to the extent of its actual interest therein, including the withdrawal of securities held in segregated safekeeping accounts held by a bank, trust company, contract market clearing organization or other futures commission merchant. Such withdrawal shall not result in the funds of one commodity and/or option customer being used to purchase, margin or carry the trades, contracts or commodity options, or extend the credit of any other commodity customer, option customer or other person. [10]


On May 17, 2005, the CFTC published final rules that further amended Rule 1.25 to allow for the practice of FCMs using repurchase agreements called "repos" with customer funds. A repo is simple the sale of a security (typically a government debt) tied to an agreement to buy the securities back later. A reverse-repo is the purchase of a security tied to an agreement to sell back later. Repos are essentially loans secured against a security. The interest rate received is called the repo rate. The party that sells a security agreeing to buy it back in the future at a higher price later is engaging in a repurchase agreement. The party that agrees to buy the security and sell it back in the future is engaging in a reverse repo.

The use of repos by MF Global would have permitted the firm to leverage customer deposits, although it is unknown that they did. However, leverage of 30:1 or greater, through the use of repos would have resulted in larger losses if the repos were in sovereign European debt.

CFTC Rule 1.25 governs the investment of customer funds by an FCM.

(a) Permitted investments. (1) Subject to the terms and conditions set forth in this section, a futures commission merchant or a derivatives clearing organization may invest customer money in the following instruments (permitted investments):
(i) Obligations of the United States and obligations fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States (U.S. government securities);
(ii) General obligations of any State or of any political subdivision thereof (municipal securities);
(iii) General obligations issued by any enterprise sponsored by the United States (government sponsored enterprise securities);
(iv) Certificates of deposit issued by a bank (certificates of deposit) as defined in section 3(a)(6) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or a domestic branch of a foreign bank that carries deposits insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation;
(v) Commercial paper;
(vi) Corporate notes or bonds;
(vii) General obligations of a sovereign nation [emphasis added]; and
(viii) Interests in money market mutual funds.
[11]

CFTC Rule 1.32 specifies how FCMs are required to compute the value of customer segregated accounts on a daily basis.

(a) Each futures commission merchant must compute as of the close of each business day, on a currency-by-currency basis:
(1) The total amount of customer funds on deposit in segregated accounts on behalf of commodity and option customers;
(2) the amount of such customer funds required by the Act and these regulations to be on deposit in segregated accounts on behalf of such commodity and option customers; and
(3) the amount of the futures commission merchant's residual interest in such customer funds.
(b) In computing the amount of funds required to be in segregated accounts, a futures commission merchant may offset any net deficit in a particular customer's account against the current market value of readily marketable securities, less applicable percentage deductions ( i.e., "securities haircuts") as set forth in Rule 15c3-1(c)(2)(vi) of the Securities and Exchange Commission (17 CFR 241.15c3-1(c)(2)(vi)), held for the same customer's account. The futures commission merchant must maintain a security interest in the securities, including a written authorization to liquidate the securities at the futures commission merchant's discretion, and must segregate the securities in a safekeeping account with a bank, trust company, clearing organization of a contract market, or another futures commission merchant. For purposes of this section, a security will be considered readily marketable if it is traded on a "ready market" as defined in Rule 15c3-1(c)(11)(i) of the Securities and Exchange Commission (17 CFR 240.15c3-1(c)(11)(i)).
(c) The daily computations required by this section must be completed by the futures commission merchant prior to noon on the next business day and must be kept, together with all supporting data, in accordance with the requirements of §1.31.
[12]


CFTC Rule 30.7 covers the treatment of foreign futures or foreign options and the investment of customer funds in foreign instruments.

(a) Except as provided in this section, a futures commission merchant must maintain in a separate account or accounts money, securities and property in an amount at least sufficient to cover or satisfy all of its current obligations to foreign futures or foreign options customers denominated as the foreign futures or foreign options secured amount. Such money, securities and property may not be commingled with the money, securities or property of such futures commission merchant, with any proprietary account of such futures commission merchant, or used to secure or guarantee the obligations of, or extend credit to, such futures commission merchant or any proprietary account of such futures commission merchant.
(b) A futures commission merchant may deposit together with the secured amount required to be on deposit in the separate account or accounts referred to in paragraph (a) of this section money, securities or property held for or on behalf of other customers of the futures commission merchant for the purpose of entering into foreign futures or foreign options transactions. In such a case, the amount that must be deposited in such separate account or accounts must be no less than the greater of (1) the foreign futures and foreign options secured amount plus the amount that would be required to be on deposit if all such customers were foreign futures or foreign options customers under this part 30, or (2) the foreign futures or foreign options secured amount plus the amount required to be held in a separate account or accounts for or on behalf of customers pursuant to any law, or rule, regulation or order thereunder, or any rule of any self-regulatory organization authorized thereunder, in the jurisdiction in which the depository or the customer, as appropriate, is located.
(c) (1) The separate account or accounts referred to in paragraph (a) of this section must be maintained under an account name that clearly identifies them as such, with any of the following depositories:
(i) A bank or trust company located in the United States;
(ii) A bank or trust company located outside the United States:
(A) That has in excess of $1 billion of regulatory capital; or
(B) Whose commercial paper or long-term debt instrument or, if a part of a holding company system, its holding company's commercial paper or long-term debt instrument, is rated in one of the two highest rating categories by at least one nationally recognized statistical rating organization; or
(C) As designated;
(iii) A futures commission merchant registered as such with the Commission;
(iv) A derivatives clearing organization;
(v) A member of any foreign board of trade; or
(vi) Such member or clearing organization's designated depositories.
(2) Each futures commission merchant must obtain and retain in its files for the period provided in §1.31 of this chapter an acknowledgment from such depository that it was informed that such money, securities or property are held for or on behalf of foreign futures and foreign options customers and are being held in accordance with the provisions of these regulations.
(d) In no event may money, securities or property representing the foreign futures or foreign options secured amount be held or commingled and deposited with customer funds in the same account or accounts required to be separately accounted for and segregated pursuant to section 4d of the Act and the regulations thereunder.
(e) Each futures commission merchant which invests money, securities or property on behalf of foreign futures or foreign options customers shall keep a record showing the following:
(1) The date on which such investments were made;
(2) The name of the person through whom such investments were made;
(3) The amount of money so invested;
(4) A description of the obligations in which such investments were made;
(5) The identity of the depositories or other places where such obligations are maintained;
(6) The date on which such investments were liquidated or otherwise disposed of and the amount of money received of such disposition, if any; and
(7) The name of the person to or through whom such investments were disposed of.
(f) Each futures commission merchant must compute as of the close of each business day:
(1) The total amount of money, securities and property on deposit in separate account(s) in accordance with this section;
(2) The total amount of money, securities and property required to be on deposit in separate account(s) in accordance with this section; and
(3) The amount of the futures commission merchant's residual interest in money, securities and property on deposit in separate account(s) in accordance with this section. Such computations must be completed prior to noon on the next business day and must be kept, together with all supporting data, in accordance with the requirements of §1.31.[13]

Rule 1.25 was amended in 2005 in part because of lobbying by the FCMs, including ironically support from MF Global's current General Counsel.

The principal changes to Rule 1.25 that would have likely affected, or one should say enabled the fall of MF Global involved reverse repos, transactions within FCM that are also broker-dealers ("BDs") and possibly the elimination that investment in money market funds carry the highest credit rating.

Before 2005, CFTC Rule 1.25(b)(4)(iii) imposed concentration limits as to both the issuer and the counterparty in reverse repos, which limits are different from the concentration limits on direct investments. After 2005, the concentration limits would apply to all investments in securities, whether obtained pursuant to direct investment or pursuant to reverse repos.

After 2005, FCMs that are also broker-dealers were allowed to engage in-house transactions involving the simultaneous exchange of customer cash or customer-deposited securities for securities held by the FCM also in its capacity as a broker dealer. What this means is that an FCM can seemingly do both a repo and reverse repo at once-taking both sides. FCMs acting also as BDs would enable the exchanging of securities for a customer so that what is not acceptable as margin at a specific clearing firm would be exchanged by the FCM for another security that would be acceptable.

Another revision of CFTC Rule 1.25(b)(2)(i)(E) eliminated the requirement that FCMs and DCOs that invested customer funds in Money Market Mutual Funds ("MMMFs") invest only in MMMFs that carried the highest ratings by the credit ratings agencies.

Criminal or Civil Liability Contingent on Fraud

The criminal or civil liability, if any, of Corzine and his agents at MF Global, will likely rest on whether customer funds were properly segregated and not commingled with FCM funds, or whether they were converted for use of MF Global. The later situation would involve not just fraud, but also embezzlement-it would constitute a criminal violation of CFTC and SEC rules, et. al. The difference between civil liability and criminal wrong-doing is illustrated by looking at the tale of three FCMs, Refco, Griffin Trading Company and Lee B. Stern & Co.

Refco was once the largest futures brokerage at the CME but will be remembered as possibly the shortest IPO in history. Refco raised and lost over $1billion in investor capital before it went public in August 2005 and bankrupt in October of 2005.

Refco was co-founded by Tom Dittmer and Ray Friedman in 1969. Amid some regulatory scuffles, Dittmer resigned and was replaced by a new CEO, Phillip Bennett.
An internal audit of Refco revealed that Bennett had taken $430 million from Refco's and manipulated Refco's financials to disguise his taking. Refco's accounting firm, Grant Thornton after a complete audit, and all the investment banks that handled the IPO, including Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America Corp., after their due diligence, missed the $430 shortfall. Federal authorities were alerted of the missing funds by Refco's own internal audit. Bennett repaid all of the money but the public had lost faith in the company. Investors sold billions of shares worth of Refco and the resulting liquidity run forced the firm into bankruptcy.

The Justice Department filed criminal charges against Refco principals Phillip R. Bennett, Tone N. Grant, Santo C. Maggio and Robert C. Trosten for fraudulently hiding trading losses of both Refco's and of its customers, and fraudulently manipulating financial statements to secure a leverage buyout of the firm and subsequent IPO.[15] In addition to obtaining guilty pleas and convictions against all of them, the government recovered obtained over $33,000,000 in forfeiture actions against five other Refco officers, including Tom Dittmer. There were also civil suits and a class action.

By contrast, no criminal charges were filed against any of the principles of Griffin Trading Company, a futures commission merchant, that collapsed overnight on December 23, 1998 as a result of the trading losses of one of their customers in London, John Ho Park, lost nearly $10.3 million on December 21 and 22, 1998. Griffin Trading Company was founded by Farrel J. "Tex" Griffin, a former assistant U.S. attorney, and Roger S. Griffin (the two are not related). Some customer funds in segregated accounts were lost in London, but there was no question of criminal liability because customer funds in the United States were segregated and never commingled. Unlike in Refco's case, no one at Griffin committed any fraud.

In the case of Griffin Trading, all customers with money held in the United States did not suffer because their funds were held in segregated customer accounts. Customers of Griffin that had funds in London lost their money because at the time the Securities and Futures Authority's Client Money Rules ("SFA Rules") did not prohibit the use of one customer's money to cover another customer's losses. Although SFA Client Money Rule 4-55 did require that customer accounts be segregated from the firm's account, there was no prohibition on their being commingled with other customer accounts in one pool. This arrangement is typically called having one omnibus account (segregated but pooled account) as opposed to separate sub-accounts for each customer, as required by law in the United States. As a result, customers sued Griffin Trading in bankruptcy proceedings for money lost in the U.K.[16]

On October 22, 1992, two rogue bond traders at the Chicago Board of Trade ("CBOT") made unauthorized trades (they exceeded their trading limits) and forced the clearing firm Lee B. Stern & Co. to default on a $8.5 margin call to the CBOT's Clearing Corporation. The two rogue traders caused a loss to the FCM that exceeded its net worth by $2 million. Lee Stern made up for the shortfall personally, saved the firm and ensured that no customers lost any money-although his firm did lose its clearing status and was never again a member of the Chicago Board of Trade Clearing Corporation.

In the history of financial futures and FCM, customers have seldom if ever lost money even because of rogue trading by FCM employees or other customers because the FCMs, historically at the immediate behest of the exchange clearing house, have made sure that customers were made whole.

Were this not the historic practice within the futures industry and in theory an FCM's entire customer segregated account pool (segregated and not commingled as it may be) would be jeopardized and placed at risk by the trading of one customer making trades they cannot cover and are too large for the capital reserves of the FCM to cover. To put this in perspective, the futures industry has, other than for the very few examples above, had good risk practices.

What happens with MF Global depends on what happened to the missing money and whether it was segregated also not commingled after the CME's spot audit of October 26, 2011.

Liability of PricewaterhouseCoopers

Some ironies are worse than others. The CFTC has subpoenaed Pricewaterhouse Coopers ("PwC") presumably for any information is may have about Mf Global's missing customer funds. PwC advertises what lessons auditors should have learned from the collapse of Lehman Brothers on their website.[17] PwC gave MF Global an unqualified (clean) audit opinion on May 20, 2011. MF Global's bankruptcy is now considered to be the eighth largest in United States history.

One cannot help but wonder at times what use are auditing firms in terms of catching or preventing large financial crisis...ever? Grant Thornton issued an unqualified audit of Refco before its IPO. Lehman, AIG and a host of other financial titans received unqualified audit opinions preceding their failures and bankruptcies.

Are accounting firms like credit ratings agencies in that it is not in their interest to issue qualified opinions because they would in so doing drive themselves out of business? Or are they like the credit ratings agencies (MF Global was downgraded to junk after it filed for bankruptcy-so the ratings agencies were all over this after the fact), and incapable of understanding the securities and market risks of the firms they are paid to pass judgment over?

In their defense, PwC might have been dealing with a rogue trading situation-perhaps Corzine himself, some late stage commingling and embezzlement of customer funds or perhaps just over-leveraged positions in European sovereign debt that coincidentally took a dramatic turn for the worse (they did in fact) during the last weeks of October.

Future Regulation Must Rescind Changes to Rule 1.25

The risk free rate of return is the yield on 30 day United States T-bills. Had MF Global been prohibited from investing customer funds in sovereign European debt or using internal repos (assuming they have done either or both), then their customers' money would be inarguably safer at all times. Customer segregated funds held in T-bills or other United States debt instruments are safer than they would be invested in anything else. The CFTC must amend all the changes to Rule 1.25 that went into affect on 2004 and 2005, including the permission to invest in foreign sovereign debt that became law in 2000.

Regulating What Cannot Be So

The CME is MF Global's "primary regulator." Many argue that it is the exchange's role to have better policed MF Global. However, to impose this burden on the CME is not necessary because it is the CFTC that proposed and finalized all the rules to allow for an FCM's investment of customer funds by the use of repos and in a foreign sovereign debt.

No one has a greater interest in avoiding events like Corzine's MF Global than the CME. To be fair, the exchanges have historically maintained a stellar track record as self-regulatory organizations that police their member firms, whether clearing members or non-clearing member firms. The case of MF Global is of monumental significance to the entire futures industry because it may tragically portray the investment of public funds in the futures markets as somehow unsafe and unprotected.

Regulation can never rule out the rogue actor or sociopath. Whatever costs Corzine was determined to incur upon the world in his quest to self-glorification by making a 230 year firm, a proprietary trading desk, the world must take solace in one simple fact-there are not that many Corzines.

A wholesale revision of the futures regulatory regime would be unfortunate and ineffective because no regulatory regime or social science model can account for the irrational or mad actor-nor must it ever try.@
R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois

R. Tamara de Silva is a securities lawyer and independent trader

Any questions about this article should be directed to tamara@desilvalawoffices.com
Footnotes:
1. Unless Corzine or his agents deliberately stole this money out of customer accounts, which no one not even the CME has either confirmed or denied.
2. The fact that European sovereign debt was reaching crisis levels began to be apparent to most of the world in 2009 and MF Global's 40:1 leverage and exposure to it should have signaled a red alert to its auditor PwC...but strangely did not seem in any way troublesome to PwC-certainly not worthy of actually pointing out or giving a qualified opinion!
3. http://cmegroup.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=3202&pagetemplate=article
4. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577012061970129588.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

5. Please see discussion of Griffin Trading Company and Refco cases
6. It is important to remember that SIPC protection does not apply in cases involving fraud or rogue trading like with Barring Bank's Nick Leesen. Were SIPC in play with MF Global, it would not cover losses causes by any fraud or malfeasance on the part of MF Global-were any found to have occurred.
7. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=de913862c8633d27e5dbb751f541f29e&rgn=div8&view=text&node=17:1.0.1.1.1.0.4.15&idno=17
8. http://www.cftc.gov/foia/fedreg05/foi050202a.htm
9. It is important to keep in mind that the yield received by the FCMs and DCOs investment of customer segregated funds has historically been a large profit center for them.
10. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=1e218e6499b67aee6c250eae86e59bf9&rgn=div8&view=text&node=17:1.0.1.1.1.0.4.18&idno=17
11. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=de913862c8633d27e5dbb751f541f29e&rgn=div8&view=text&node=17:1.0.1.1.1.0.4.20&idno=17
12. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=1a1599ee01c68b489e7394311a832812&rgn=div8&view=text&node=17:1.0.1.1.1.0.5.27&idno=17
13. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=541c9995ee3b4f389cf3273d6aec19f4&rgn=div8&view=text&node=17:1.0.1.1.21.0.7.7&idno=17
14. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/tiny-rule-change-was-at-the-heart-of-mf-global-s-failure-william-d-cohan
15. United States v. Bennett, 485 F.Supp.2d 508 (2007)
16. In re Griffin Trading Co., 245 BR 291 (2000)
17. http://www.pwc.com/jg/en/events/Lessons-learned-for-the-survivors.pdf

Insider Trading Charges Against Goldman's Rajat Gupta

October 26, 2011

Insider Trading Charges Against Goldman's Rajat Gupta
By R Tamara de Silva
October 26, 2011

Yesterday Rajat K. Gupta, a Senior Partner Emeritus and Managing Director of McKinsey & Co. and Board Member of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., was indicted on criminal charges of insider trading.[ 1] Mr. Gupta is alleged to have provided Raj Rajaratnam, the founder of one of the largest hedge funds in history, Galleon Group inside information from which Rajaratnam profited[2 ]. Mr. Gupta will likely be prosecuted by the same U.S. Attorney, Preet Bharara, who obtained a conviction and eleven year sentence (the longest sentence ever dealt on the charge of insider trading) against Raj Rajaratnam.

Mr. Gupta's arrest comes on the heels of what has been an over four year investigation of alleged insider trading on Wall Street. The principal focus of the government's investigation has been on whether information was passed along by analysts and consultants of companies that provide "expert network" analysis to hedge funds and mutual funds. Expert network companies arranged for meetings and calls with executives from hundreds of companies and then shared this information with traders at hedge funds and mutual funds.

The activities of expert network firms came to be discovered by the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") by analysis of the performance results of hedge funds and mutual funds. Funds that performed much better than other funds were scrutinized and essentially targeted for wiretap and surveillance. Historically the SEC has found inside trades by looking at the ticker tape (in addition to volume and unusual options activity) before and after the release of inside information.[ 3]

Even a superficial definition of terms is necessary. Insider trading is a legal term that encompasses both legal and illegal conduct. Legal insider trading occurs when corporate insiders, defined as officers, directors, and employees, buy and sell stock in their own companies. There are times when corporate insiders are prohibited from buying or selling stocks or making options plays in their own companies. Illegal insider trading generally encompasses "the buying or selling of a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security."[ 4 ]

Illegal insider trading also encompasses the "tipping" of information obtained by virtue of a tipper's fiduciary duty, employment of relationship of trust and confidence to any third party "tippee," who trades in the markets using or influenced by this information.

There is a significant amount of ambiguity and fluidity in the definition of who is an "insider," who may become a "constructive insider," what trading "on the basis of" information means, and what information, classified as property is truly "inside information." Some of the terms used in the SEC's Rule 10b-5[ 5], which governs insider trading, are determined in their breach as much as in their observance. Many terms in Rule 10b-5 are subject to the roving interpretations of the judiciary based upon the unique fact patterns of the cases for insider trading that reach trial. The rule prohibits any act or omission resulting in fraud or deceit in connection with the purchase or sale of any security. Efforts to more precisely describe what is and what is not insider trading have been opposed by the SEC for fear that proscribing the precise conduct of Rule 10b-5 too precisely would narrow the powers of the SEC.

Congress and the SEC have extended the prohibition against trading on unequal and inside information to include of certain types of "outside" information-information about takeovers pursued by third parties-wherein there is no insider or fiduciary relationship [6 ].

In the case of Gupta, if the alleged conduct is proven to be true and the prosecution has actual proof of the information alleged exchanged in Mr. Gupta's indictment, then it fits within the unambiguous gambit of Rule 10b-5. This would be the archetypical case of insider trading. The indictment (11 CR 907), alleges among other charges, two clear examples of insider trading:

1) In September 2008, the indictment alleges that 16-20 seconds after leaving a board meeting at Goldman wherein it was discussed that Warren Buffet would buy $5 billion of preferred shares in Goldman (at the time an extremely valuable infusion to Goldman especially given its exposure to AIG), Mr. Gupta called Rajaratnam. Rajaratnam and Galleon Tech Funds began purchasing Goldman stock immediately, which it turned around and sold after the announcement became public for a profit of $840,000 and avoided a loss of several millions of dollars;
2) On January 29, 2009, the day before Proctor and Gamble was to report its quarterly earnings, Mr. Gupta exited a board meeting at P&G wherein the earnings were revealed to be coming out below the guidance P&G had given to analysts, and conveyed this inarguably inside information to Rajaratnam. Rajaratnam immediately began shorting approximately 180,000 shares of P&G.

As in the case of Mr. Gupta, what is described in his indictment is the disclosure by an insider (board member) of unambiguous inside information. However, if the evidence of Mr. Gupta's were not based upon actual wiretap recordings (if the prosecution had no recordings of Mr. Gupta actually conveying this information) but merely on the alleged hearsay conversations between a convicted Rajaratnam, while trying to get a reduced sentence, then the case itself becomes extremely tenuous and the evidence ambiguous.

In other cases, the problem becomes defining what is inside information and what is excellent hard won research-a problem exacerbated by the ambiguities in the definitions of the building block terms that go into what constitutes Rule 10b-5's definition of "inside information." Being privy to a board meeting to discuss earnings before they are released to the public or learning about a merger through a confidential email or conversation easily constitutes inside information. An insider's disclosure of clearly inside information would violate the fiduciary duties that corporate board member and managers, as agents, owe to their principals-the ultimate principal being the shareholders.

However, hiring researchers to park next to a Federal Express shipping station and daily tally the number of shipments loaded on the trucks over time to forecast seasonal shipping performance, is by way of an example, gumshoe research that may be proprietary and hard won, but is it ever inside information? What if a hedge fund routinely employed these tactics and achieved results far superior to other funds. Assuming there are 8,000 hedge funds in the United States each trying to out guess the performance of public companies and taking a bet on whisper numbers, no one in theory has an edge aside from inside information. Unless, certain funds simply had superior information through the most aggressive research. A fund that outperformed its competitors enough would likely draw attention from the SEC, but would this fund's use of research be inside information? To some degree the work of expert networks illustrates the problems with a roving and malleable definition of insider trading. Mr. Gupta's indictment, taking the alleged facts as true, does not.@

R. Tamara de Silva
October 26, 2011
Chicago, Illinois
Footnotes:
1. The topic of insider is large and discussed thoroughly and much more substantively in my upcoming book on the United States Criminal Justice System.
2. Copy of the indictment can be retrieved here: http://www.securitiesdocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Gupta-Rajat-Indictment-Signed-and-Stamped.pdf
3. The exchanges are called self-regulatory organizations (SROs) and have historically been the best regulators and watchdogs of unusual and potentially illegal market activity.
4. http://www.sec.gov/answers/insider.htm
5. 17 C.F.R. § 240.10b-5, promulgated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, pursuant to its authority granted under § 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
6. United States v. O'Hagan, 521 U.S. 642 (1997)

Postponing the Inevitable Collapse of the Housing Market

October 25, 2011

By R. Tamara de Silva
October 25, 2011

On October 24, 2011 the Federal government announced that it would revise the Home Affordable Refinance Program ("HARP"). HARP was originally launched in March 2009 as a $75 billion plan to put a stop to the foreclosure crisis. HARP was supposed to prevent millions of the 9 million American homeowners facing foreclosure from defaulting on their mortgages and losing their homes. Yet as of this past July, HARP has only helped 865,000 of the 9 million homeowners who must refinance their home loans or soon default.

The housing crisis is by all accounts far from over. The bottom has yet to be reached in the housing market and one cannot but wonder how mortgage defaults would be affected were the Federal Reserve not to keep interest rates continually suppressed. Recently, Moody's announced that foreclosures will rise to unprecedented levels in 2012, enveloping 30% of all mortgages and totaling over 1.5 million defaults.

Yesterday, President Obama went to Nevada to sell his reincarnation of HARP. The specifics of the new HARP ("HARP2") are as follows:

• The mortgage must be owned or guaranteed by the government owned, Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.
• The mortgage must have been sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac on or before May 31, 2009.
• The mortgage cannot have been refinanced under HARP previously unless it is a Fannie Mae loan that was refinanced under HARP from March-May, 2009.
• The current loan-to-value (LTV) ratio must be greater than 80%-it is not capped, in other words, there is no loan to value restriction on qualification.
• HARP2 only allows alteration of the interest rate and term of the loan-it is not possible to take cash out by refinancing.
• The borrower must be current on the mortgage at the time of the refinance, with no late payment in the past six months and no more than one late payment in the past 12 months.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency estimates that 800,000 to 1 million homeowners could take advantage of HARP2-it is being far more modest in its estimations of HARP2.

In support of HARP2, the White House's own blog offers the following statement:

Nearly 11 million Americans are underwater on their mortgage, meaning they owe more to the bank than their homes are worth. In fact, homeowners have lost $7.25 trillion in home equity--the difference between the actual value of a home and the balance of what's owed on the mortgage--since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. This loss in home equity is devastating for a family's financial security, and makes it more difficult to take out other loans, save for a bigger house, or build a nest egg for retirement. It also means families are making payments that are higher than they would be if their mortgage was based on the actual current value of their home, giving them fewer dollars to spend on other economy-bolstering goods and services.

The government began interfering with the housing market by aggressively advocating the idea that every American should own a home for the past twenty years-this advocacy, leaving aside its dubious philosophical underpinning has not gone entirely well. The federal government forced and incentivized loans to be written to lower income earners and particularly in what it deemed economically disadvantaged urban areas. The government played an active role in setting the table for the housing bubble by being so enamored of the idea that homeownership be perfectly democratic, that it dictated the writing of sub-prime mortgages, even as housing prices went straight down. This was not a one party campaign either because legislators on both sides of the political aisle enacted policies that encouraged home ownership at all costs even with low FICO scores, little or no money down, and little or no supporting documentation.

One argument against using HARP2 to prop up the housing market by preventing people that are headed to default from going through foreclosure is that housing is not an engine of economic growth per se. Housing does not grow the economy-it is the result of an already growing and prosperous economy. Housing is not a consumer durable nor is it an investment like gold or a retirement or savings account. The housing market drove the economy in terms of construction, furnishing and development, etc. However, consumer consumption in terms of the use of unrealized equity as its driver, drove the economy in an unsustainable manner. A significant proportion of all underwater mortgages likely resulted from home equity loans being taken to fuel purchases and the consumption of consumer goods, the homeowners could not otherwise have afforded to buy and should not have bought in the first instance. To the extent that this credit driven spending drove economy, it was always doomed to have a shelf-life.

In any functioning marketplace, the forces of supply and demand without interference will dictate price. Price is one of, if not in many instances the single most relevant information provided in any approximation of an efficient market. "What did you pay for that?" is more than vaguely related to "what is it worth?" While the price paid for a piece of art is not often a precise indicator of what it is worth, it is a good starting point. However, regardless of the price paid for a Monet or a November Soybean contract, the more important question soon becomes, "what is it worth?" If I owned a bushel of November 2008 soybeans, I could look at the spot or cash market and know immediately what the value is of what I own. A stock portfolio consisting of listed stocks has an immediately discoverable value because listed stocks are marked to market everyday as buyers and sellers determine through the trading market, what listed equities are worth at any given moment. The owner of a financial instrument unlike the owner of a Monet, has an after market to which he can go to instantly determine the value of the instrument and where he can sell it.

When the government props up the housing market by either artificially suppressing interest rates or putting more money into keeping bad loans from defaulting, the government is preventing price discovery. We will never know the effect of all the foreclosed homes coming to market because we are postponing their doing so. The housing bubble's bursting is being delayed in order to forestall the pain it will inevitably cause. Yes, many homeowners will be renters and banks will face massive write-offs. Had this been allowed to happen two years ago, we would have now seen what housing is actually worth because the market would have absorbed the foreclosed properties already.

In many instances, the savings from refinancing will not be appreciable enough to prevent the inevitable default-it may postpone it.

Also, according to many analysts, the average savings for a refinanced underwater mortgage will not be appreciable. A homeowner saving $800 in mortgage payments a year is unlikely to use their extra $66 a month to appreciably stimulate the economy or perhaps even appreciably improve their lives. It may all be too little too late.

By allowing for the re-financing of mortgages with LTVs of 80-1000% or more, we are arguably creating yet another housing bubble. Moreover, we are prolonging the end of a recession in some part felt by a sharp and consistent decline in consumer spending since February 2008.

We are also, rewarding irresponsible banks and borrowers while penalizing anyone who saves by keeping interest rates so low as to even allow for a HARP2. Someone will pay for HARP2-shareholders of banks or taxpayers or both. HARP2 will allow participating lenders to offload default risk onto the federal government and to the extent that they are allowed to do so, taxpayers will pay for HARP2 as part of the increasing Federal Deficit.

What the White House is selling to prospective voters in advance of an election, as a way to keep people in their homes, is really just a way to temporarily mask an untold number of mortgage defaults which will ultimately have to be absorbed by the market.

Markets that punish prudence, savings and its more productive participants by shifting through taxes and debt the economic consequences of the irrational and less productive, are not free markets. Ultimately, incentivizing bad choices by punishing goods ones will affect economic growth more significantly than allowing a bubble to burst.

Consider Henry Hazlett's Broken Window Fallacy as opposed to Paul Krugman's argument that the terror attack of 9/11 that took over 3,000 lives and destroyed the World Trade Center, could constitute an economic good. What Hazlett illustrates in the story of a baker's broken window that the glazer's gain of getting to fix the window is the loss of money by the baker who may have spent the money he has to spend on fixing the window, on a new suit-giving the economic gain to a tailor-the end result of which was no net economic gain. In the end, many economic events lead to no net gain. HARP2 is such a story.

The history of the financial markets is replete with the occurrence of bubbles from the tulip bubble, the South Sea bubble, the Stock Market bubble of the 1920s, the Internet bubble and the Japanese bubble-but to name a few. Ultimately when excess supply was absorbed by the market, the forces of supply and demand ensured that price returned to an equilibrium. The world did not end, recovery began. It is time that the government allow the housing bubble to burst instead of infusing it with helium so that the economy may at last recover.@
R. Tamara de Silva
October 25, 2011

Chicago, Illinois

Should Prohibiting Discrimination Against Those with Learning Disabilities Be Akin to Prohibiting the Making of Invidious Distinctions Based On Race?

September 14, 2011
By R. Tamara de Silva

August 22, 2011


"In approaching this problem, we cannot turn the clock back..."
Supreme Court Justice Earl Warren, 1954
Brown v. Board of Education


Over fifty-seven years ago, the Supreme Court voted unanimously to end segregation in schools in what many consider to be the most important legal case of this century. Brown v. Board of Education and the companion cases that followed, held that "separate was not equal," and state laws that required separation between the races in schools, offended both Equal Protection and Due Process. Brown found that state laws that drew invidious distinctions based upon race, prejudiced black students. After Brown, any state law that provided for separation based upon race became illegal-forever changing the complexion of the nation's schools, workplaces and neighborhoods.
It is inarguable that Brown has achieved an anti-discriminatory purpose and changed the nation-the degree to which it has succeeded merely as a desegregation measure or a political one, is widely debated but to a degree academic. Some of the smallest numerical minorities of non-white Americans, like Indian Americans are the most over-represented in colleges and universities. Yet, it is also true that below the college level, schools are almost as segregated now as they were fifty even years ago, but there are a complex set of causes for this-admittedly among them is some degree of desire to voluntarily segregate in housing locations.
Today race is not the consideration in need of anti-discriminatory policies in institutions of higher learning that it was when Brown was decided. One of the interesting consequences of Brown v. Board is that its scope has expanded to set the stage for new civil rights statutes like the Americans with Disabilities Act ("ADA"), which seek to protect in academia and in the workplace, people with disabilities. The ADA and its companion acts like the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, have to some extent become the next generation of the civil rights statutes. The language of the ADA mimics the language of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. However, it is not clear how well the principles behind anti-discrimination in the context of race apply to the disabled, but particularly unclear when applied to the learning disabled.
Race is a stereotype that leads to a preference that is not per se rational-especially because of its application to all persons belonging to the race. As Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said, "deep seated preferences cannot be argued about," and "The mind of a bigot is like the pupil of the eye. The more light you shine on it, the more it will contract."
It is never rational according to the principles behind Brown for an employer or an admissions officer to discriminate on the basis of race. It is only rational to discriminate based upon merit, because when race is factored out, a level playing field exists that allows for a more precise judgment on merit. Employers and admissions officers, who do not take race into consideration, will be better able to judge the strongest and most capable candidates.
However, the anti-discriminatory principles behind Brown, may not translate into rational preferences for an employer or an admissions officer in many instances of making choices between disabled and non-disabled persons. If an employer discriminates solely on race, this is not a rational decision but one made on stereotype-not likely to be reasonable on its own.
Since almost any principle can be carried to its logical end, some illustrations may be helpful. The preferences of an employer or an admission's officer on the other hand towards a non-disabled person are arguably rational against a disabled person. For instance, an employer may not rationally want to hire a blind person to be a sewing machine operator. An admissions officer will rationally want the applicant with the strongest intellect (other factors being equal) and not someone who has enormous difficulty reading or sitting through a lecture.
There is a crucial difference between civil rights statutes and those that prevent discrimination against the disabled. The civil rights statutes prohibit irrational discrimination, that is discrimination based solely on race, gender or national origin. Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act, Individuals with Disabilities Education Act ("IDEA"), ADA and related statutes do not differentiate between rational discrimination and irrational discrimination. Nietzsche held great contempt for disabled persons as being dangerous to healthy and strong ones-an irrational opinion. Yet what about a manufacturer, who must take into account costs in hiring, and is faced with a choice between hiring a blind sewing machine operator and an additional employee to work side by side to assist, and one non-disabled person? The ADA prohibits rational, economic decision.
The ADA came into being by defining a disability as an impairment that substantially limits a major life activity-this impairment is measured against everyone else in society without the impairment. Major life activity has been held to include, caring for oneself, walking, seeing, breathing, working and learning. It has evolved to enlarge the definition of disability to include people with learning disabilities ("LD") which measure some cognitive impairment measured against an individual's own best self-what they would be were they not to have the LD.
This article is concerned not with physical disabilities, or mental disabilities such as Downs Syndrome or mental retardation but specifically learning disabilities and the extension of anti-discriminatory principles that came into existence to prevent discrimination based on race to people with LDs. This article does not dispute the existence of LDs like dyslexia and mental retardation including forms of severe autism, which are accepted even outside of the LD industry, by the outside scientific community as real.
The definition of a LD is genuinely inclusive:

"The child does not achieve adequately for the child's age or to meet State-approved grade-level standards in one or more of the following areas, when provided with learning experiences and instruction appropriate for the child's age or State-approved grade-level standards:

• Oral expression.
• Listening comprehension.
• Written expression.
• Basic reading skills.
• Reading fluency skills.
• Reading comprehension.
• Mathematics calculation.
• Mathematics problem solving.

The child does not make sufficient progress to meet age or State-approved grade-level standards in one or more of the areas identified in 34 CFR 300.309(a)(1) when using a process based on the child's response to scientific, research-based intervention; or the child exhibits a pattern of strengths and weaknesses in performance, achievement, or both, relative to age, State-approved grade-level standards, or intellectual development, that is determined by the group to be relevant to the identification of a specific learning disability, using appropriate assessments, consistent with 34 CFR 300.304 and 300.305; and the group determines that its findings under 34 CFR 300.309(a)(1) and (2) are not primarily the result of:

• A visual, hearing, or motor disability;
• Mental retardation;
• Emotional disturbance;
• Cultural factors;
• Environmental or economic disadvantage; or
• Limited English proficiency."

The definition of LD, some would argue, eradicates what was once thought to account for the difficulty of students to learn as well as others-natural intelligence, aptitude or that someone can be better at math than reading or vice versa. Tests like IQ tests are sometimes administered and if a child scores higher in an IQ test and relatively poorer in a math test or reading test-this is considered evidence supporting the diagnosis of LD. LD proponents imply that were it not for the occurrence of LD, children and adults would be as smart as they are supposed to be (their idealized selves) and perhaps smarter than other children and adults without LDs.
Some within the LD industry supported by nothing other than rank speculation, insist that historical figures like Einstein, Charles Darwin, Beethoven, Van Gogh and Churchill had some form of LD. But by the amorphous catch-all definition of LD-who living or dead, would not?
By law, LDs can be diagnosed by a child's parents and one teacher-there is no medical or scientific testing requirement to prove its existence. LDs also encompass ADD and ADHD. Predictably, this has led to skepticism and what critics point out is a specific lack of scientific rigor in this field.
There are other problems with the application of the ADA and related statutes arising from their definition, or lack thereof, of what constitutes a disability. Learning disabilities have exploded in occurrence among school age children. Asian students are least diagnosed with LD. All other ethnic groups appear to be over-represented. The relatively high and recent statistical occurrence of learning disabilities (suggesting an over-diagnosis), the fact that they disproportionately occur in the most affluent economic groups (suggesting a diagnosis of apologetic and hopeful parents) and their lack of scientific proof of its existence (in terms of objective double-blind tests, biological or genetic markers)-has further fueled skepticism. Some skeptics suggest that standardized testing and overly homogenic schooling leads to the diagnosis of LD because it is a fallacy that all people learn or process information the same way.
Another problem with including LD/ADD/ADHD as a disability under the ADA is that this diagnosis is rewarded in academia to the point of encouraging faking it. A person with a LD can take six hours to take the SAT as opposed to three hours. In colleges, an LD student can ask to take multiple choice tests home and ask for much more time to complete everything. This may provide an incentive to claim an LD. Harvard's graduating class in 2011 consisted of 2,058 students that were picked out of a field of well-qualified 22,955 applicants. Having three extra hours to take the SAT could be a competitive advantage.
LD is somewhat akin to the diagnosis of an epidemic in search of a disease. Nothing in this article is meant to cast aspersion on the existence of legitimate learning disabilities like dyslexia, which are real conditions. Unfortunately, the definition and diagnosis of LD is democratic and general enough to include anyone-it is there for the taking. There are a number of medical doctors that dispute the existence of learning disabilities completely, comparing it to a for-profit hoax because of the lack of scientific evidence and what they term is the massive for-profit industry that has mushroomed because of it.
In 2008, President George W. Bush, signed the Americans with Disabilities Act Amendments Act of 2008 ("ADA Amendments Act") which became law in 2009. This act broadened the definition of disability to include "individuals to the maximum extent permitted by the terms of the ADA and generally shall not require extensive analysis." Wearing contact lenses or glasses, however, is not alone to be considered a physical impairment casting one with a disability under the ADA. Also, "reading and bending" were added to the ADA's original definition of "major life activities,"-the list now includes anything that impairs one's ability in, "caring for oneself, performing manual tasks, seeing, hearing, eating, sleeping, walking, standing, lifting, bending, speaking, breathing, learning, reading, concentrating, thinking, communicating, and working"-list is not apparently meant to be limited to these enumerated activities and may include others.
This presents a lessening of the protections afforded under the ADA to people with more legitimate disabilities, who need accommodations entering buildings, parking, require service animals, etc. throughout their entire lives. Using the principles behind Brown and its companion cases that made discrimination based upon race unlawful to extend to discrimination against people with LD/ADD/ADHD is a cheapening of a monumental case. An important principal carried to a seemingly silly conclusion.@
R. Tamara de Silva
Chicago, Illinois