Articles Posted in financial markets

J.P. Morgan’s Loss as a Red Herring By R Tamara de Silva May 14, 2012

Much ado is being made about J. P. Morgan’s disclosure of over $2 billion in trading losses and one hopes the media and regulators do not use this as yet another opportunity to completely miss the point. Wall street must not rely exclusively on its present risk models that are based exclusively on VaR and variations of VaR-it must learn to think outside its own box and anticipate worse case scenarios. We cannot afford to have many more systemic crises that threaten to bring down the financial system simply because yet again, the unexpected and un-modeled occurs.

Chief Executive Jamie Dimon’s public self-flagellation aside, this loss compromises merely 20% percent of J. P. Morgan’s pretax profit for the first quarter of this year. Put another way, J. P. Morgan has a market capitalization of $137.4 billion of which $2 billion comprises a bit more than 1 percent–hardly fodder for anyone’s angst against quasi-public Wall Street juggernauts that seem to privatize profit and publicize loss being ‘too big to fail.” Mr. Dimon is wrong to assert that the trading losses were the result of hedges. It would be more wrong for lawmakers on either side of the aisle to call for hasty regulations on an industry they have never really understood and from whose pockets they are lobbied and receive the heftiest campaign contributions. A cursory look at what has happened to the Volcker Rule illustrates this point. The real lesson of J. P. Morgan’s $2.3 billion loss is that Wall Street must once and for all adjust the way it manages and understands risk.

Comparing the Incomparable- Credit Ratings Agencies Revisited

By R. Tamara de Silva January 17, 2011

Yesterday, Standard & Poor’s relieved the Eurozone’s bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (“EFSF”) of its AAA credit rating, possibly hampering the fund’s ability to contain the European debt crisis. This comes on the heel’s of the S&P stripping both France and Austria of their triple-A rating in favor of a rating of AA+.[1] The effect of the S&P downgrade may be negative. Ratings agencies exist to level asymmetries in information and evaluate risk but one of their inherent oddities is that they seek to compare things whose differences in scale make them incomparable. Ratings agencies also have conflicts of interests, they often evaluate financial products (like collateralized debt obligations) that they do not understand, they seem to lack fixed ways to measure absolute risk, and they are at times, catastrophically wrong.

Why MF Global’s Last Days May Have Been CriminalBy R. Tamara de Silva December 19, 2011

Last Thursday December 15, 2011 was MF Global Holdings Ltd.’s and MF Global Inc.’s Chief Executive Jon Corzine’s third time to testify before Congress. He may not have faired all that well in light of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman Terrance Duffy’s testimony on December 13, 2011, which seemed to contradict Corzine’s previous testimony. Corzine adjusted his testimony on December 15, 2011 to account for the seeming contradiction. However, how well Corzine may have done to avoid perjury or any role in a possible fraud remains to be seen. A closer examination of Corzine’s testimony and the events leading up to MF Global’s bankruptcy on October 31, 2011 suggests problems. If there is any purpose to be achieved in having Corzine testify again, lawmakers should focus their questions towards the failed purchase of MF Global by Interactive Brokers and all customer agreements, including emails between MF Global and account holders leading up to the purported transfers of $175 million and $700 million in as yet missing customer segregated funds and the firm’s use of a type of repurchase agreement.

Were the Transfers Legal?

Was Corzine’s Testimony About MF Global Truthful?
By R. Tamara de SilvaDecember 13, 2011

Testimony before Congress today revealed that MF Global had illegally transferred $175 million out of customer segregated funds towards its European broker-dealer operations before it went into bankruptcy proceedings and very much under Jon Corzine’s stewardship. On December 8, 2011 and again today before Congress, Corzine testified under oath that he was not aware of any illegal transfer. Today’s testimony of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman, Terrance A. Duffy suggests that Corzine did know about the transfer.