J.P. Morgan’s Loss as a Red Herring By R Tamara de Silva May 14, 2012

Much ado is being made about J. P. Morgan’s disclosure of over $2 billion in trading losses and one hopes the media and regulators do not use this as yet another opportunity to completely miss the point. Wall street must not rely exclusively on its present risk models that are based exclusively on VaR and variations of VaR-it must learn to think outside its own box and anticipate worse case scenarios. We cannot afford to have many more systemic crises that threaten to bring down the financial system simply because yet again, the unexpected and un-modeled occurs.

Chief Executive Jamie Dimon’s public self-flagellation aside, this loss compromises merely 20% percent of J. P. Morgan’s pretax profit for the first quarter of this year. Put another way, J. P. Morgan has a market capitalization of $137.4 billion of which $2 billion comprises a bit more than 1 percent–hardly fodder for anyone’s angst against quasi-public Wall Street juggernauts that seem to privatize profit and publicize loss being ‘too big to fail.” Mr. Dimon is wrong to assert that the trading losses were the result of hedges. It would be more wrong for lawmakers on either side of the aisle to call for hasty regulations on an industry they have never really understood and from whose pockets they are lobbied and receive the heftiest campaign contributions. A cursory look at what has happened to the Volcker Rule illustrates this point. The real lesson of J. P. Morgan’s $2.3 billion loss is that Wall Street must once and for all adjust the way it manages and understands risk.

Federal Judge in Health Care Case Orders Executive Branch to Explain Speech

By R Tamara de Silva April 4, 2012

It not typical in the course of oral arguments for a Federal Judge to assign the Department of Justice and the Attorney General a homework assignment. Yesterday, the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit heard oral arguments involving the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA” or “Obamacare”) when something extraordinary happened. The Court was hearing oral arguments on an appeal by the Physicians Hospitals of America and Texas Spine & Joint Hospital, Lts, for the dismissal of an action they had filed for declaratory and injunctive relief against Kathleen Sebelius, as Secretary of the United States Department of Health and Human Services to prevent enforcement of Section 6001 of the ACA. During the Appellee’s arguments, Judge Jerry Smith, interrupted the Department of Justice’s lawyer, Dana Lydia Kaersvang to ask her whether the Department of Justice, an arm of the Executive Branch, agreed with statements made by President Obama that seemed to indicate that the Executive Branch did not believe the Judicial Branch had the power to overturn laws it found violated the Constitution.

Comparing the Incomparable- Credit Ratings Agencies Revisited

By R. Tamara de Silva January 17, 2011

Yesterday, Standard & Poor’s relieved the Eurozone’s bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (“EFSF”) of its AAA credit rating, possibly hampering the fund’s ability to contain the European debt crisis. This comes on the heel’s of the S&P stripping both France and Austria of their triple-A rating in favor of a rating of AA+.[1] The effect of the S&P downgrade may be negative. Ratings agencies exist to level asymmetries in information and evaluate risk but one of their inherent oddities is that they seek to compare things whose differences in scale make them incomparable. Ratings agencies also have conflicts of interests, they often evaluate financial products (like collateralized debt obligations) that they do not understand, they seem to lack fixed ways to measure absolute risk, and they are at times, catastrophically wrong.

In Defense of Private Capital and Capitalism

By R. Tamara de Silva January 14, 2012

Is Mitt Romney guilty of capitalism? His opponents in the race for presidential nominee of the Republican Party have converged in their rhetoric and ideology with the Democratic Party and President Obama to decry that Romney’s actions at Bain Capital and the private equity model in particular, are wrong, so extremely wrong that they make him wholly unworthy of consideration of President of the United States. Whether or not the latter conclusion is true or false, their argument is not evidence of either conclusion. I have read that a majority of Americans tune out politicians unless they stand to benefit from a specific government program or benefit-this would be a rational instance of when to tune them out.[1 ] The Democrats and accusing Republicans are in error about private equity and capitalism. What is worse they are placing populism above this country’s core principles.

Why MF Global’s Last Days May Have Been CriminalBy R. Tamara de Silva December 19, 2011

Last Thursday December 15, 2011 was MF Global Holdings Ltd.’s and MF Global Inc.’s Chief Executive Jon Corzine’s third time to testify before Congress. He may not have faired all that well in light of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman Terrance Duffy’s testimony on December 13, 2011, which seemed to contradict Corzine’s previous testimony. Corzine adjusted his testimony on December 15, 2011 to account for the seeming contradiction. However, how well Corzine may have done to avoid perjury or any role in a possible fraud remains to be seen. A closer examination of Corzine’s testimony and the events leading up to MF Global’s bankruptcy on October 31, 2011 suggests problems. If there is any purpose to be achieved in having Corzine testify again, lawmakers should focus their questions towards the failed purchase of MF Global by Interactive Brokers and all customer agreements, including emails between MF Global and account holders leading up to the purported transfers of $175 million and $700 million in as yet missing customer segregated funds and the firm’s use of a type of repurchase agreement.

Were the Transfers Legal?

Was Corzine’s Testimony About MF Global Truthful?
By R. Tamara de SilvaDecember 13, 2011

Testimony before Congress today revealed that MF Global had illegally transferred $175 million out of customer segregated funds towards its European broker-dealer operations before it went into bankruptcy proceedings and very much under Jon Corzine’s stewardship. On December 8, 2011 and again today before Congress, Corzine testified under oath that he was not aware of any illegal transfer. Today’s testimony of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group Chairman, Terrance A. Duffy suggests that Corzine did know about the transfer.

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